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Singapore economists see growth of 3.6% in 2024, monetary policy unchanged in January
2024-12-11 16:38:44

Indonesia’s Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index rose 0.5%, while India’s Nifty 50 Futures indicated a marginal rise at open.


South Korea's KOSPI extended gains with a 0.6% rise, regaining some of the ground it lost on Monday and in the prior week. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol is under criminal investigation for insurrection following his controversial declaration of martial law earlier this month.


A slew of government measures, including injection of funds in the local market, have helped alleviate some concerns over the ongoing political crisis.


Japan shares fall as strong inflation fuels rate hike speculation

Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.6%, while TOPIX was down 0.3%.


Data on Wednesday showed that Japan's wholesale inflation increased for the third consecutive month in November, as businesses faced higher labor and raw material costs. The reading highlighted growing pressure on the Bank of Japan to consider raising interest rates again, amid sticky inflation.(Corrects number of economists polled to 20, not 25, in paragraph 2)


By Bing Hong Lok


SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Singapore's economy will grow 3.6% this year, up from a previous forecast of 2.6% expansion, while monetary policy settings are expected to remain unchanged at an upcoming review in January, a survey by the central bank showed on Wednesday.


The median forecast of 20 economists surveyed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore expect growth of 3.1% in the final quarter of 2024 and 2.6% growth for the whole of 2025.


Last month, the trade ministry raised its GDP growth forecast for 2024 to 3.5% from a previous range of 2.0% to 3.0%, after third-quarter growth surpassed estimates at 5.4%.


A majority of economists surveyed expect the MAS to maintain its current monetary policy in its quarterly reviews in January, April and July. 


The MAS left monetary policy settings unchanged in October even as growth picked up and inflation declined. It has not changed policy since a tightening in October 2022, which was the fifth tightening in a row.


Only 33% of those polled expect a loosening of monetary policy in January via a reduction in the slope of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate, or S$NEER, compared to 50% in September's survey.


The central bank of trade-reliant Singapore sets the path of the policy band of the S$NEER, thus strengthening or weakening the local currency against those of its main trading partners. 


Headline inflation for 2024 was seen at 2.5%, down slightly from 2.6% forecast in the September survey, while core inflation this year was seen at 2.8%, down from 2.9% seen previously.


Markets are split over whether the BOJ will raise interest rates again when it meets next week, as recent data showed Japan's economy grew slightly more than initially estimated in the July-September quarter. But growth slowed sharply from the prior quarter.


Elsewhere, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.5%, a day after country’s central bank held interest rates steady, but struck a slightly dovish stance.


Taiwan’s Taiwan Weighted index declined 0.6%, and Malaysia’s FTSE Malaysia KLCI index fell 0.5%, while Philippine’s PSEi Composite index edged 0.3% lower.


Core inflation in the final quarter of this year was seen at 2.1% in the survey. 

Core inflation fell to 2.1% in October from a year earlier, making it the smallest rise in almost three years.

The economists surveyed expect headline and core inflation in 2025 to both be in a range of 1.5% to 1.9%.

(This story has been corrected to fix the number of economists polled to 20, from 25, in paragraph 2)