By Gloria Dickie

BAKU (Reuters) -The world's warming tropical wetlands are releasing more methane than ever before, research shows — an alarming sign that the world's climate goals are slipping further out of reach.

A massive surge in wetlands methane — unaccounted for by national emissions plans and undercounted in scientific models — could raise the pressure on governments to make deeper cuts from their fossil fuel and agriculture industries, according to researchers.

Wetlands hold huge stores of carbon in the form of dead plant matter that is slowly broken down by soil microbes. Rising temperatures are like hitting the accelerator on that process, speeding up the biological interactions that produce methane. Heavy rains, meanwhile, trigger flooding that causes wetlands to expand.

Scientists had long projected wetland methane emissions would rise as the climate warmed, but from 2020 to 2022, air samples showed the highest methane concentrations in the atmosphere since reliable measurements began in the 1980s.

Four studies published in recent months say that tropical wetlands are the likeliest culprit for the spike, with tropical regions contributing more than 7 million tonnes to the methane surge over the last few years.

"Methane concentrations are not just rising, but rising faster in the last five years than any time in the instrument record," said Stanford University environmental scientist Rob Jackson, who chairs the group that publishes the five-year Global Methane Budget, last released in September. 

Satellite instruments revealed the tropics as the source of a large increase. Scientists further analyzed distinct chemical signatures in the methane to determine whether it came from fossil fuels or a natural source — in this case, wetlands. 

The Congo, Southeast Asia and the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and southern Brazil contributed the most to the spike in the tropics, researchers found.

Data published in March 2023 in Nature Climate Change shows that annual wetland emissions over the past two decades were about 500,000 tonnes per year higher than what scientists had projected under worst-case climate scenarios. 

Capturing emissions from wetlands is challenging with current technologies.

"We should probably be a bit more worried than we are," said climate scientist Drew Shindell at Duke University.

The La Nina climate pattern that delivers heavier rains to parts of the tropics appeared somewhat to blame for the surge, according to one study published in September in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.  

But La Nina alone, which last ended in 2023, cannot explain record-high emissions, Shindell said. 

For countries trying to tackle climate change, "this has major implications when planning for methane and carbon dioxide emissions cuts," said Zhen Qu, an atmospheric chemist at North Carolina State University who led the study on La Nina impacts. 

If wetland methane emissions continue to rise, scientists say governments will need to take stronger action to hold warming at 1.5 C (2.7 F), as agreed in the United Nations Paris climate accord.

WATER WORLD

Methane is 80 times more powerful than carbon dioxide (CO2) at trapping heat over a timespan of 20 years, and accounts for about one-third of the 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3 F) in warming that the world has registered since 1850. Unlike CO2, however, methane washes out of the atmosphere after about a decade, so it has less of a long-term impact.

More than 150 countries have pledged to deliver 30% cuts from 2020 levels by 2030, tackling leaky oil and gas infrastructure.

But scientists have not yet observed a slowdown, even as technologies to detect methane leaks have improved. Methane emissions from fossil fuels have remained around a record high of 120 million tonnes since 2019, according to the International Energy Agency's 2024 Global Methane Tracker report.

Satellites have also picked up more than 1,000 large methane plumes from oil and gas operations over the past two years, according to a U.N. Environment Programme report published on Friday, but the countries notified responded to just 12 leaks.

Some countries have announced ambitious plans for cutting methane. 

China last year said it would strive to curb flaring, or burning off emissions at oil and gas wells. 

President Joe Biden's administration finalized a methane fee for big oil and gas producers last week, but it is likely to be scrapped by the incoming presidency of Donald Trump.

The Democratic Republic of Congo's environment minister Eve Bazaiba told Reuters on the sidelines of the U.N. climate summit COP29 that the country was working to assess the methane surging from the Congo Basin's swampy forests and wetlands. Congo was the largest hotspot of methane emissions in the tropics in the 2024 methane budget report.

"We don't know how much [methane is coming off our wetlands]," she said. "That's why we bring in those who can invest in this way, also to do the monitoring to do the inventory, how much we have, how we can also exploit them." 

Investing.com -- AI darling Nvidia is reporting quarterly results, the crypto rally rolls on, the UK is to release inflation data and oil prices look set to remain on the back foot. Here's your look at what's happening in markets for the week ahead.

1. Nvidia results

Chipmaker Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), a bellwether for the AI craze that has boosted stocks this year is due to report third quarter earnings after the close on Wednesday.

The results could well be a gauge for investors’ appetite for tech stocks, the AI trade and sentiment for equities broadly, after a post-election market rally stalled.

Nvidia’s chips are seen as the gold standard in the AI-space and its shares have risen around 200% this year, overtaking Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) to become the world's largest company by market capitalization. Its outsize weighting in the S&P 500 has helped power the index to record highs this year.

Investor expectations are high going into earnings, raising the chances for short term volatility.

Last week analysts at Raymond James raised their Nvidia price target from $140 to $170 and reiterated that “any pullback due to high expectations [is] an opportunity.”

2. Crypto rally

Bitcoin’s price has surged 30% since the Nov. 5 U.S. election, rising above the $90,000 level for the first time, amid a rally that shows no signs of stopping.

The entire cryptocurrency market cap has risen above $3 trillion in value for the first time ever, which means that Bitcoin and other digital assets are currently worth as much as the combined market cap of Elon Musk's Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), Facebook (NASDAQ:META) parent Meta and Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRKa).

The rally is being driven by expectations of a more favorable regulatory environment under the Trump administration and with momentum continuing to build, some analysts see a six-figure bitcoin price as increasingly likely.

A one-time crypto skeptic, President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to set up a national Bitcoin reserve and make the U.S. a global hub for the industry but it remains to be seen how feasible his promises are and what the timeline will be for their implementation.

3. U.S. data, Fedspeak

The U.S. economic calendar is quieter in the week ahead, but investors will get updates on the health of the housing sector, with reports on building permits, housing starts and existing home sales.

The calendar also includes the weekly report on weekly jobless claims, while manufacturing and service sector PMI data on Friday could give early indications on how companies are reacting to the threat of Trump's proposed trade tariffs - a data point that will be closely watched by markets from here on.

Elsewhere, earnings results from Walmart (NYSE:WMT) and Lowe’s (NYSE:LOW) on Tuesday will give fresh insights into the strength of consumer spending.

Investors will also get the chance to hear from several Federal Reserve officials, including Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Kansas Fed President Jeffrey Schmid and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack.

4. Oil prices

Oil prices ended around 2% lower on Friday, adding to losses for the week as a combination of fears over weakening demand from China and the prospect of a slower pace of Fed rates cuts weighed.

For the week, Brent fell around 4%, while crude futures declined around 5%.

Data on Friday showed that Chinese refineries processed less crude in October on a year-over-year basis as domestic demand slowed, adding to fears over the economic outlook of the world's largest crude importer.

Earlier in the week, the International Energy Agency forecast that global oil demand will slow, leading to an oil surplus in 2025.

Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated Thursday the central bank can afford to be careful with the future pace and scope of rate cuts, citing ongoing economic growth, a solid job market, and inflation above the Fed’s 2% target.

Lower interest rates typically spur economic growth, aiding fuel demand.

5. UK inflation

The UK is to release October CPI data on Wednesday with economists expecting the annual rate of inflation to have risen 2.2%, climbing back above the Bank of England’s 2% target.

That would be an increase from 1.7% in September, the first time the annual rate of inflation dropped below the BoE’s target in more than three years.

The BoE delivered a second 25-basis point rate cut earlier this month and said further cuts were likely to be gradual as it assessed the persistence of inflation pressures including from the first budget of Britain's new government.

BoE Governor Andrew Baily along with several other officials will appear before Parliament's Treasury Committee on Tuesday to answer questions on inflation and the monetary policy outlook.

The UK is to release October retail sales data on Friday along with manufacturing and service sector PMI data.

(Reuters) - Foreigners sold off most Asia ex-China bond markets in October as they were cautious ahead of the U.S. presidential election.

The potential for a Donald Trump victory, which ended up being the actual result, raised concerns of increased inflation from his planned tariffs and tax cuts, which lowered expectations for the accelerated rate cuts that had supported regional bonds this year.

They sold local bonds in Malaysia, Thailand and India, totalling a net $3.8 billion, following five monthly net purchases in a row, according to data from regulatory authorities and bond market associations.

Trump's decisive victory in last week's election has led analysts to adopt a more pessimistic view of foreign investment flows into Asian bonds.

Eugene Leow, senior rates strategist at DBS Bank, said a stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields, fuelled by increased bets on Trump-related trades, have been exerting pressure on Asian government bonds and interest rates.

"Optimism that was initially sparked by Fed easing bets around the middle of the year have largely evaporated," he said.

"Against this challenging backdrop, scope for Asia central bank easing has become more restrained while investor sentiment on local currency bonds have also become more muted."

The U.S. dollar was poised for big weekly gains on Friday, towering near one-year highs as a hawkish turn from the Federal Reserve chief sent short-term Treasury yields higher.

On the other hand, foreigners pumped $4.03 billion into South Korean bonds last month on optimism over South Korea's inclusion in the FTSE Russell's World Government Bond Index (WGBI) starting November 2025.

Indonesian bonds also received about $1.5 billion, a sixth monthly foreign inflow in a row.

Investing.com-- Oil prices fell slightly in Asian trade on Friday after data showed a bigger-than-expected build in U.S. inventories, with prices set for a weekly loss amid growing concerns over weak demand. 

Prices were rattled by a cut in the OPEC’s demand outlook this week, while stimulus measures from top importer China largely underwhelmed. A strong dollar also weighed on oil prices.

Brent oil futures expiring in January fell 0.4% to $72.30 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 0.4% to $68.26 a barrel by 20:12 ET (01:12 GMT). 

Oil heads for weekly decline

Brent and WTI futures were trading down more than 2% each this week.

Losses were initially sparked by middling stimulus measures from China, especially as Beijing declined to dole out more targeted fiscal measures to support private spending and the property market. 

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cut its 2024 demand outlook for a fourth consecutive month, citing concerns over China. 

Sentiment towards China was also strained by the prospect of a renewed trade war with the U.S., as Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election. Trump has vowed to impose steep trade tariffs on the country. 

US inventories grow in past week, but product stockpiles fall 

Government data showed on Thursday that U.S. oil inventories grew nearly 2.1 million barrels (mb) in the week to November 8, more than expectations for a 0.4 mb build and a second straight week of outsized build.

The reading pushed up concerns over a U.S. supply glut, especially as production remained close to record highs of over 13 million barrels per day. Production is also expected to increase in a Trump presidency. 

But outsized draws in distillates and gasoline inventories showed that demand in the world’s largest fuel consumer still remained robust, although this trend is also expected to shift with the upcoming winter season.

IEA raises 2024 demand outlook, warns of 2025 supply glut 

The International Energy Agency on Thursday slightly raised its 2024 demand growth forecast to 920,00 bpd, seeing stronger gasoil demand in some parts of the world.

The agency left its 2025 demand outlook unchanged, but warned that robust production will see oil supplies exceed demand in 2025, even if the OPEC left its ongoing supply cuts in place. 

The IEA’s forecast comes after the OPEC cut its annual demand outlook earlier this week.

By Liangping Gao and Ryan Woo

BEIJING (Reuters) -China's new home prices in October fell the most year-on-year since 2015, official data showed on Friday, suggesting a barrage of support measures to stabilise the crisis-hit property sector has had little impact so far.

In annual terms, new home prices slid 5.9% in October, in their 16th consecutive month of declines, after a 5.8% drop in September.

However, month-on-month, new home prices were down 0.5% in their slowest decline since March, after dipping 0.7% in September, according to Reuters calculations based on National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data.

The month-on-month fall in home prices narrowed in large, medium and small cities - tier-one, tier-two and tier-three cities, said NBS in its accompanying statement.

In a sign of a potential shift in sentiment, NBS said 75.9% of respondents in its poll expect new home prices to remain stable or rise in the next six months, up 17.6 percentage points from the previous poll.

Three of the 70 cities surveyed posted growth in year-on-year home prices in October, up from two cities the previous month.

China has since last year ramped up efforts to stabilise the property sector which plunged into crisis in 2021, including injecting more funds to support cash-strapped developers and lowering the borrowing cost.

On Wednesday, the finance ministry introduced new tax incentives to further lower the cost of home purchase and spur demand, in its latest efforts to revive the sector.

China cut benchmark lending rates by 25 basis points in October to boost demand.

Policymakers pledged to press for the timely delivery of pre-sold homes, a major concern for home buyers. A total of 2.85 million homes had been delivered nationwide as of Nov. 13, the housing regulator said earlier this week.

Investing.com-- U.S. stock index futures fell in evening deals on Thursday as strong producer inflation data and cautious comments from the Federal Reserve raised uncertainty over just how quickly interest rates will fall.

Losses in futures came after a negative session on Wall Street, as a risk-on rally seen through last week cooled and as investors second-guessed bets on a December rate cut. 

The long term outlook for inflation also grew more uncertain in the face of a second Donald Trump presidency, with Trump widely expected to enact more inflationary policies. 

S&P 500 Futures fell 0.2% to 5,966.25 points, while Nasdaq 100 Futures fell 0.3% to 20,945.50 points by 18:25 ET (23:25 GMT). Dow Jones Futures fell 0.1% to 43,853.00 points. 

Powell flags caution over rate cuts amid strong inflation 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned on Thursday that strength in the U.S. economy will allow the Fed to take its time in deciding how and when to lower interest rates. 

While the Fed chair did paint a positive picture of the U.S. economy, he also flagged caution over sticky inflation. 

Powell’s comments came after data on Thursday showed producer price index inflation grew more than expected in October. This was preceded by a consumer price index print that showed inflation remained sticky.

The data, coupled with Powell's comments, saw traders sharply pare bets that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in December, with CME Fedwatch showing traders pricing in a 51.7% chance rates will remain unchanged, and a 48.3% chance of a cut. 

The longer term outlook for rates also grew more uncertain, with Trump’s protectionist stance on trade and immigration expected to keep inflation underpinned in the coming years.

Wall Street fell from record highs on this notion, while the dollar and Treasury yields rose sharply.

The S&P 500 fell 0.6% to 5,949.17 points on Thursday, while the NASDAQ Composite fell 0.6% to 19,109.29 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5% to 43,750.86 points. 

After-hours movers: Applied Materials sinks, Domino’s surges 

Among major aftermarket movers, Applied Materials Inc (NASDAQ:AMAT) fell nearly 6% after its quarterly earnings missed some street expectations. Slowing revenue from China was a key point of contention. 

On the other hand, Domino’s Pizza Inc (NYSE:DPZ) surged over 9% after Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRKa) said it had taken a stake in the firm. Pool Corporation (NASDAQ:POOL) also rose 5.6% after Berkshire disclosed a stake. 

By Michael S. Derby

(Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Thursday the U.S. central bank has time before it needs to adapt its policymaking thinking due to the return of President-elect Donald Trump to the White House.

"I think it's too early to reach judgments here" and "we don't really know what policies will be put in place," Powell said at a Dallas Fed event.

Powell said the Fed will watch to see what elected officials do - Republicans won control of both houses of Congress in the Nov. 5 elections. "I think we have time to make assessments about what the net effects of policy changes will be on the economy before we react with policy," he said.

Trump, who defeated Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential election, has vowed to impose stiff tariffs on imports and a sweeping crackdown on immigration, both of which have the potential to reignite inflation after the Fed had brought it back under control. At the same time, Trump's economic agenda also risks further driving up deficit spending, although his proposed tax cuts could produce higher economic growth for a while.

The Republican former president was a regular critic of the Fed during his 2017-2021 term in the White House and broke with long-standing precedents to actively criticize the central bank's monetary policy decisions. Trump and his allies have also weighed the idea of subordinating Fed decision-making to their political authority, a reality many economists fear could erode trust in the Fed and increase the risks of higher inflation.

In his remarks on Thursday, Powell said Fed officials simply need more policy clarity before they can start updating economic forecasts and policy expectations, noting that for the central bank's outlook, "the answer isn't obvious until we see the actual policies ... We reserve judgment until we actually know what we are talking about."

NEW DELHI (Reuters) -India's wholesale price-based inflation accelerated to a four-month high of 2.36% year on year in October due to elevated food prices, government data released on Thursday showed.

Inflation for October was higher than the 2.2% projected by economists in a Reuters poll, and up from 1.84% in September. Food prices rose 11.6% year on year, compared to a 9.5% gain in September, with vegetable prices soaring 63% on-year, compared to a 48.7% jump in September. Cereal prices rose 7.9% over last year versus an 8.1% rise a month ago. Prices of manufactured products rose 1.5% against a 1% rise in the previous month. Fuel and power prices dropped 5.8% from a 4% fall in September. Headline retail inflation, which is a key gauge for the country's central bank to decide policy rates, has averaged 5% over the past 12 months, but food inflation has held above 8%, as weather shocks elevated prices of vegetables, cereals and other essential food items. In October, retail inflation hit a 14-month high of 6.2% while food prices jumped 10.9%, dashing hopes of an interest cut. India's rate-setting panel had softened its policy stance in October to "neutral" but Reserve Bank of India (NS:BOI) Governor Shaktikanta Das has said the change did not mean there will be a rate cut in the very next meeting.

By Kevin Buckland

TOKYO (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar stood at a one-year high against major peers on Thursday and headed for a fifth straight daily gain fuelled by higher yields and Donald Trump's election victory.

The greenback climbed above 156 yen for the first time since July. The euro slumped to its weakest since Nov. 2023 at $1.0546 and sterling hit its lowest on the dollar in three months at $1.2683.

Higher trade tariffs and tighter immigration under the incoming Trump administration are projected to fuel inflation, potentially slowing the Federal Reserve's rate cutting cycle longer term. Expectations for deeper deficit spending are lifting Treasury yields, providing the dollar with additional support.

The President-elect's Republican Party will control both houses of Congress when he takes office in January, Edison Research projected on Wednesday, giving him sweeping power to push his agenda.

"The USD is a magical currency backed by carry, momentum, growth differentials, (and) impending fiscal and tariff kickers," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone.

"While trends don't last forever, until U.S. economics start to break down, it's likely that an increasingly rich USD position proves to be the primary factor that could cause a tradeable selloff."

Cryptocurrency bitcoin also shot to a fresh record high of $93,480 overnight, and was rising back towards that level in Asia's day. Trump has vowed to make the United States "the crypto capital of the planet".

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the currency against six top counterparts including the euro and yen, added 0.2% to 106.69, its highest since early November 2023.

The dollar had dipped briefly on Wednesday after a measure of U.S. consumer inflation met economists' forecasts, keeping the Fed on track to reduce rates at their meeting in December.

Long-term Treasury yields also rose on Wednesday, and extended that advance in the Asian morning, pushing as high as 4.483% for the first time since July 1. [US/]

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar fell to a three-month low after marginally weaker jobs data, touching $0.6464.

"After an extended period of Australian jobs growth exceeding expectations, today’s softer jobs growth offers some modest indications of cooling within an exceptionally resilient labour market," said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG.

"It provides the central bank with the breathing room to maintain its focus on inflation and keep rates in restrictive territory into year-end, all without any significant signs of deterioration in the labour market."

The New Zealand dollar fell about 0.4% to $0.5859. [NZD/]

By Hannah Lang and Laura Matthews

(Reuters) -Bitcoin broke through the $90,000 level on Wednesday, to an all-time high in a rally showing no signs of easing on expectations that Donald Trump as U.S. president will be a boon for cryptocurrencies.

The world's biggest cryptocurrency has become one of the most eye-catching movers in the week since the election and on Wednesday touched a record of $93,480 before paring gains.

It was last down slightly at $88,185, but has risen 32% since the Nov. 5 election.

Smaller peer ether has also risen 37% since Election Day, while dogecoin, an alternative, volatile token promoted by billionaire Trump-ally Elon Musk was up more than 150%.

"What you've seen since the election is the market hoping or realizing what that could mean for bitcoin in the medium to long term – a pro-bitcoin administration, Senate and potential legislation that not only gives U.S. citizens the right to self-custody bitcoin but potentially for bitcoin to be a strategic reserve asset for the U.S. Treasury," said Damon Polistina, head of research at Eaglebrook.

Regulatory uncertainty has been a major cloud hanging over the sector and a headwind to advisors allocating for their clients to bitcoin, he said.

Trump embraced digital assets during his campaign, promising to make the United States the "crypto capital of the planet" and to accumulate a national stockpile of bitcoin.

It is unclear how or when that could happen but the possibility drove a speculative surge in crypto mining and trading stocks.

Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale Investments, said the "election results will open up the ability for large, regulated businesses like banks, custodians and exchanges to engage with public blockchain technology in the way that they haven't in the past."

Software (ETR:SOWGn) company and bitcoin investor MicroStrategy announced it had spent about $2 billion buying bitcoin between Oct. 31 and Nov. 10. Shares scaled a record high on Tuesday.

Crypto investors see an end to increased scrutiny from the Securities and Exchange Commission under Trump. Trump and his sons announced a new crypto business, World Liberty Financial, in September.

"Many people believe that we will inevitably get to bitcoin at $100k," said JJ Kinahan, CEO of IG North America and president of its tastytrade retail brokerage.

"I expect bitcoin to continue building momentum, at least until after the inauguration when we find out what the real plans to get there are."

Others advised investors against getting caught up in the crypto frenzy.

"With bitcoin reaching $90K and hitting a new all-time high, investors should be cautious about the potential volatility ahead," said Georgi Koreli, CEO of Hinkal, a blockchain-based private trading platform. "This doesn't mean that we will not see $95K or even $100K soon, but rather that BTC might pause or slide back to regain its strength."