By Liz Lee

BEIJING (Reuters) -China has urged France to push the European Commission towards a solution acceptable to both the European and Chinese electric vehicle industries, while France said the bloc would not yield on key matters as it pushes to overturn a tariff on brandy.

The EU launched an anti-subsidy investigation into imports of Chinese-made battery EVs last year and in October voted for tariffs on those vehicles. China in recent months has launched its own investigations into European pork and dairy, and imposed temporary anti-dumping measures on imports of brandy from the EU in October.

Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao, in a meeting with French junior trade minister Sophie Primas in Shanghai on Sunday, urged Paris to take on "an active role" to nudge the EU on Chinese EVs.

He reiterated the bloc's investigation was a major concern that has "seriously hindered" China-EU auto industry cooperation.

Primas told Wang that EU refuses to escalate the situation and continues to trade with China "but will not yield to pressure on the essential points".

"We will continue to defend fairer competition that benefits everyone," a statement from her press office showed, adding that Wang was open in their discussions to consider the propositions of French brandy producers.

Primas is on a three-day visit to challenge China over its import duties on brandy, which Paris calls political and unjustified, Reuters reported last week.

Wang told Primas Beijing's trade remedy investigations on EU brandy, pork and dairy products were in accordance with the domestic industry's applications and complied with the World Trade Organization rules, "unlike the EU" which was "rash" in launching its EV probe.

By Shaloo Shrivastava

BENGALURU (Reuters) - India's manufacturing growth gained momentum in October after decelerating for three months as demand improved significantly, helping in job creation and leading to a better business outlook, according to a business survey released on Monday.

The HSBC final India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, complied by S&P Global, rose to 57.5 in October from an eight-month low of 56.5 in September and was above a preliminary estimate of 57.4.

"India's headline manufacturing PMI picked up substantially in October as the economy's operating conditions continue to broadly improve," noted Pranjul Bhandari, chief India economist at HSBC.

"Rapidly expanding new orders and international sales reflect strong demand growth for India's manufacturing sector."

The output and new orders sub-indexes rose to three-month highs with a notable increase in demand.

International demand improved from a year-and-a-half low in September. A desire for Indian goods lead to orders from Asia, Europe, Latin America and the U.S.

Buoyant demand also boosted the outlook for the year ahead.

"Business confidence is also very high due to expectations of continued strong consumer demand, new product releases, and sales pending approval," added Bhandari.

To meet growing demand, firms took on many more workers than in September. Hiring increased for an eighth consecutive month.

That would probably bring some relief to the government, which has failed to create enough well paying jobs for those entering the workforce. Economists cautioned job creation will remain muted over the next 12 months, a Reuters poll published a week ago showed.

Inflationary pressures increased with both input and output prices rising faster. Input cost inflation was the highest in three months, elevated by higher material costs, wage bills and transportation fees.

Firms passed on the extra costs to their clients at a much quicker pace than in September.

India's inflation rose to a nine-month high of 5.49% in September, largely driven by higher food prices and close to the upper end of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) 2-6% target.

Despite that, a separate Reuters poll last week showed a slim majority of economists expected the RBI to cut interest rates in December, to 6.25% from 6.50% currently.

Investing.com-- Most Asian stocks rose on Monday with investors looking to more cues on fiscal stimulus from a meeting of China’s top policymakers this week, although risk aversion before the U.S. elections kept gains limited.

Regional trading volumes were also low on account of a market holiday in Japan. Nikkei 225 futures fell 0.2%. 

Asian markets took some positive cues from a softer-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls reading on Friday, which furthered bets that a cooling labor market will bring more interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. 

U.S. stock steadied in Asian trade, with focus also turning to an upcoming Fed meeting this week. 

Chinese stocks upbeat as NPC meeting begins

China’s Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indexes rose 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index added 0.7%.

The National People’s Congress’ Standing Committee begins a four-day meeting on Monday, where the body is widely expected to outline more fiscal spending.

Recent reports said the body could approve an additional $1.4 trillion in new debt over the coming years to boost growth, especially as the Chinese economy grapples with persistent deflation and a prolonged property market crash.

The NPC meeting is likely to provide more cues on the implementation and scale of fiscal support outlined by Beijing over the past month. While Chinese stocks had initially clocked strong gains on optimism over the new measures, they trimmed a bulk of these gains on doubts over the timing and scale of the stimulus. 

Australia stocks rise, RBA in focus

Australia’s ASX 200 added 0.3%, remaining close to recent record highs with focus squarely on a Reserve Bank of Australia meeting on Tuesday.

The RBA is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, although the central bank may strike a hawkish tone due to Australian inflation remaining sticky. 

The RBA is also expected to flag a potential delay in any plans to cut interest rates, due to sticky inflation and strength in the job market. ANZ expects the central bank to only begin cutting rates in the first quarter of 2025. 

Broader Asian markets advanced, although gains were mostly skittish in anticipation of the U.S. elections and the Fed meeting. 

Recent polls showed Donald Trump and Kamala Harris were set for a tight race on Tuesday. Increased speculation over a Trump victory had pressured Asian markets in recent sessions, given that Trump has vowed to impose steep trade tariffs on China.

On Monday, South Korea’s KOSPI rose 1.4%, outperforming its regional peers on strength in local chipmaking stocks.

Futures for India’s Nifty 50 index pointed to a flat open, as Indian stocks struggled after tumbling from record highs in October. More key Indian earnings are also due this week.

By Wayne Cole

SYDNEY (Reuters) - The dollar slipped in Asia on Monday as investors braced for a potentially pivotal week for the global economy as the United States chooses a new leader and, probably, cuts interest rates again with major implications for bond yields.

The euro rose 0.4% to $1.0876 but faces resistance around $1.0905, while the dollar dipped 0.3% on the yen to 152.45 yen. The dollar index eased 0.3% to 103.94.

Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump remain virtually tied in opinion polls and the winner might not be known for days after voting ends.

Analysts believe Trump's policies on immigration, tax cuts and tariffs would put upward pressure on inflation, bond yields and the dollar, while Harris was seen as the continuity candidate.

Dealers said the early dip in the dollar might be linked to a well-respected poll that showed Harris taking a surprise 3-point lead in Iowa, thanks largely to her popularity with female voters.

"It is widely considered that a Trump win will be positive for the USD, though many feel this outcome has been discounted," said Chris Weston, an analyst at broker Pepperstone. "A Trump presidency with full control of Congress could be most impactful, as one would expect a solid sell-off in Treasuries resulting in a spike higher in the USD."

"A Harris win and a split Congress would likely result in 'Trump trades' quickly reversed and priced out," he added. "The USD, gold, bitcoin and U.S. equity would likely head lower."

Uncertainty over the outcome is one reason markets assume the Federal Reserve will choose to cut rates by a standard 25 basis points on Thursday, rather than repeat its outsized half-point easing.

Futures imply a 99% chance of a quarter-point cut to 4.50%-4.75%, and an 83% probability of a similar-sized move in December.

"We are pencilling in four more consecutive cuts in the first half of 2024 to a terminal rate of 3.25%-3.5%, but see more uncertainty about both the speed next year and the final destination," said Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius.

"Both our baseline and probability-weighted forecasts are now a bit more dovish than market pricing."

The Bank of England also meets Thursday and is expected to cut by 25 basis points, while the Riksbank is seen easing by 50 basis points and the Norges Bank is expected to stay on hold.

The Reserve Bank of Australia holds its meeting on Tuesday and again is expected to hold rates steady.

The BoE's decision has been complicated by a sharp sell-off in gilts following the Labour government's budget last week, which also dragged the pound lower.

Early Monday, sterling had regained some of its losses to stand at $1.2963, some way from last week's trough at $1.2841. [GB/]

More stimulus is also expected from China's National People's Congress, which is meeting from Monday through Friday.

Sources told Reuters last week that Beijing is considering approving next week the issuance of more than 10 trillion yuan ($1.40 trillion) in extra debt in the next few years to revive its fragile economy.

Investing.com -- It’s set to be another nail-biting week for investors as U.S. voters go to the polls in a too close to call presidential election race that will have far-reaching consequences for fiscal policy and global trade. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is expected to deliver another rate cut at its latest policy meeting with investors on the lookout for clues on the future path of interest rates. Here's your look at what's happening in markets for the week ahead.

1. U.S election

Election day is on Tuesday with early voting already well underway in a tight race for the White House, pitching Republican Donald Trump against Democrat Kamala Harris.

Recent gains in Treasury yields and the dollar are seen by some analysts as the market anticipating a win for Trump. But polls suggest a very close race, meaning that a victory by the Democrat could spark a rash of trading unwinds.

Traders may just be rooting for a clear result, fearing a potentially contested election and lengthy period of uncertainty about the outcome as a significant risk to markets.

Only seven states are seen as truly competitive, but a poll released on Saturday showed Harris holding a surprise lead in Iowa, a state Trump won easily in the last two elections, though another poll showed her trailing in that state.

2. Fed meeting

The Fed is widely expected to deliver a 25-basis point rate cut at the conclusion of its latest policy meeting on Thursday, followed by another in December, after September’s 50-bps reduction.

Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, which showed that jobs growth almost stalled in October amid the impact of strikes and weather disruptions, cemented expectations for a smaller rate cut. Jobs growth for the prior two months was revised lower, indicating that the labor market is gradually cooling.

Investors will be hoping the Fed's statement and comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the post policy meeting press conference will show whether officials believe economic resilience will continue - and if they might cut rates more slowly as a result.

But analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a note Friday that they don’t expect Powell "to commit to the size or cadence of future cuts but to reiterate that the Fed remains data dependent."

3. Earnings season

Third quarter earnings season continues, with a slew of results due in the coming days, even though investors will likely be focusing their attention on the election and the Fed.

Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) and Constellation Energy (NASDAQ:CEG) are both due to report on Monday, followed a day later by Builders FirstSource Inc (NYSE:BLDR), Ferrari (NYSE:RACE) and Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ:SMCI). Shares in SMCI lost almost 45% last week after a regulatory filing revealed that Ernst & Young resigned as the company's accountant.

Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM), CVS (NYSE:CVS) and Arm Holdings (NASDAQ:ARM) are due to report on Wednesday, with investors on the lookout for any update from Arm on its lawsuit against Qualcomm.

Pinterest (NYSE:PINS), DraftKings (NASDAQ:DKNG), Cloudflare (NYSE:NET) and Affirm (NASDAQ:AFRM) are among some of the names due to report on Thursday.

4. Bank of England rate cut

The Bank of England meets on Thursday and is widely expected to lower rates by 25 bps, after cutting rates for the first time in more than four years in August. The policy decision could draw extra attention, coming on the heels of the Labour government's new budget.

Investors are now anticipating fewer BoE interest rate cuts next year as plans for higher borrowing and spending unveiled in last Wednesday’s budget saw UK borrowing costs rise to their highest levels in a year.

Elsewhere, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged on Tuesday and for the rest of this year, as strong economic activity and sticky core inflation still warrant a cautious approach.

5. Oil prices

Oil prices look set to remain volatile as geopolitical risk premium offsets concerns over rising supply and a weaker demand outlook.

Oil prices rose on Friday amid reports that Iran is preparing a retaliatory strike on Israel to be launched from Iraq within days. Iran and Israel have engaged in a series of tit-for-tat strikes within the broader Middle East warfare set off by fighting in Gaza.

Prices were also supported by expectations OPEC+ could delay December's planned increase to oil production by a month or more on concern over soft oil demand and rising supply. A decision could be made as early as this week.

For the week, Brent posted a decline of about 4%, while U.S. crude futures were down about 3% as record U.S. output weighed.

--Reuters contributed reporting

(Reuters) - Voters in the United States are heading to the polls on Tuesday to pick their next president in a too-close-to-call election pitching Republican Donald Trump against Democrat Kamala Harris.

Who will be at the helm of the world's biggest economy will have wide-ranging consequences for financial markets, global trade, with China and Europe in focus, and monetary policy, with interest-rate setting meetings at the Fed, as well as in Britain, Australia and Brazil scheduled for the coming week.

Here's all you need to know about the week ahead from Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili and Rodrigo Campos in New York, Rae Wee in Singapore and Amanda Cooper in London.

1/TO THE BALLOT BOXES

The U.S. election cycle that has already rattled asset prices finally comes to a head.

Recent gains in Treasury yields and the dollar are seen by some traders as the market anticipating a win for Trump. But polls suggest a very close race with Harris, meaning that a victory by the Democrat could spark a rash of trading unwinds.

Investors may just be rooting for a clear result, fearing a potentially contested election and lengthy period of uncertainty about the government makeup as a significant risk to markets.

Meanwhile, bitcoin - the ultimate Trump trade - is nearing an all-time high again.

2/THE DAY AFTER

The day after the U.S. election, the Fed kicks off its meeting on interest rates. The elephant in the monetary policy room is how the decisions by the next U.S. president will impact growth and inflation dynamics.

For now, recent data shows a stronger-than-expected U.S. economy has led some investors to question whether the Fed miscalculated when it kicked off the current easing cycle with a jumbo-sized 50-basis point rate cut in September. A more modest 25-basis point reduction is expected on Thursday.

Investors hope the Fed's statement and Chairman Jerome Powell’s news conference will show whether policy makers believe economic resilience will continue - and if they might cut rates less than expected as a consequence. Futures linked to the Fed’s policy rate showed investors pricing in about 120 basis points of cuts by year-end.

3/US BULL IN A CHINA SHOP?

China announces October trade figures on Thursday - some fear this might be one of the last times investors can expect upbeat export numbers, depending on who takes the White House.

Trump's threat of 60% tariffs on China has rattled the country's industrial complex, which sells goods worth more than $400 billion annually to the United States.

With export momentum having been the lone bright spot for China's struggling economy, a Trump victory is likely to have huge ramifications.

October inflation data due on Nov. 9 - the first full-month reading since Chinese authorities unveiled the September raft of stimulus measures to pull the economy out of its deflationary funk. That could provide an early read of how domestic consumers have taken to Beijing's urgent push to support growth.

4/ FOLLOW THE LEADER, OR NOT

Where the Fed goes, other central banks often follow. But the outcome of the U.S. election could skew this dynamic.

A Trump victory - and potential tit-for-tat trade war - would weigh on export-reliant economies. The resulting rise in U.S. inflation and a stronger dollar might force the Fed to cut rates more slowly, while other central banks are left to grapple with a hit to growth from those extra duties.

For now, it's business as usual.

The Bank of England is expected to cut rates by 25 bps on Thursday. Possible inflationary effects of the Labour government's new budget might mean fewer cuts in 2025, no matter what happens in the U.S.

Down under, sticky inflation means there is virtually no chance of a cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday until next year.

5/ WOBBLY EMERGING GIANTS

Mexico, jointly with China, is a weather vane for U.S.-emerging market relations and has seen the peso touch a two-year low, with concerns over the election amplifying domestic woes.

Emerging market outflows have, by some measures, scaled two-year highs, fuelled by a mix of a strong dollar, high U.S. yields and a general de-risking desire. That will raise pressure on emerging market central banks near and far.

Brazil's central bank, which has been front-running the Fed, has already returned to a hiking cycle. Policy makers are expected to lift interest rates by 50 bps on Wednesday, following a 25 bps increase in September to 10.75%. Economists now see inflation ending the year slightly above the 4.5% upper end of the official target range.

By Brigid Riley

TOKYO (Reuters) -The dollar steadied against major peers on Friday, with currency moves muted as investors awaited the U.S. jobs report to confirm economic resiliency heading into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting and a close-call U.S. presidential election next week.

The U.S. dollar started the month not far off a one-week low after coming under pressure against the yen and on Thursday.

But the greenback saw its biggest monthly gains in just over two-years in October, as investors pared back aggressive Fed rate cut bets and weighed the U.S. election outlook.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls data closes out the week, with economists polled by Reuters estimating 113,000 jobs were added in October, although analysts say the number could be impacted by recent hurricanes.

Headline numbers could easily miss estimates as a result, although a sustained market reaction should be limited, said Sean Callow, senior FX analyst at InTouch Capital Markets.

Analysts said the unemployment rate will likely give a better read on the overall health of the labour market. It's expected to come in at 4.1%.

"So long as it remains below 4.3%, pricing for the Fed funds rate shouldn't change much from (a 25 basis point cut) next week and likely another 25bp in Dec," said Callow.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, last rose 0.09% to 103.97.

The yen gave up some of Thursday's gains, sliding 0.31% to 152.49 per dollar as domestic traders grew cautious ahead of a three-day weekend in Japan amid big risk events.

But less dovish comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda following the central bank's decision to stand pat on Thursday had the currency well off a three-month low of 152.885 hit earlier this week.

"We think the chances of a Dec. rate hike have somewhat increased after Gov. Ueda's press conference," Morgan Stanley MUFG economists Takeshi Yamaguchi and Masayuki Inui wrote in a report on Thursday.

Their base case remains for the BOJ to raise rates again in January to 0.5%, although they noted factors such as the dollar/yen exchange rate and inflation data leading up to the year-end decision will be important.

The Fed's monetary policy decision next week comes just days after the U.S. presidential election on Tuesday.

Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris remain neck and neck in several polls, but some investors have been putting on trades betting Trump will win, lifting the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields.

Trump's pledges to implement tax cuts, loosen financial regulations and raise tariffs are seen as inflationary and could slow the Fed in its policy easing path.

Elsewhere, China's manufacturing activity swung back to growth in October as an expansion in new orders led to a pickup in production growth, a private sector survey showed on Friday.

Separate data showed prices of new homes in China rose at a faster pace in October.

The offshore yuan traded down about 0.12% at 7.1295 per dollar, while the onshore yuan was 0.06% lower at 7.1219.

The euro stood around a two-week high against the greenback, buoyed this week after data showed euro zone inflation accelerated more than expected in October. It was last down 0.06% at $1.0877.

Sterling was mostly unchanged at $1.2901, after tumbling to its lowest since mid-August at $1.28445 on Thursday.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency by market cap, last fetched around $69,544.

By Stefanno Sulaiman and Gayatri Suroyo

JAKARTA (Reuters) -Indonesia's headline annual inflation rate cooled in line with expectations, but its core inflation rate accelerated to its highest in over a year, official data showed on Friday.

The October headline inflation rate was 1.71%, easing from 1.84% in September and close to the median forecast of 1.68% by analysts in a Reuters poll. The October headline rate was the lowest since October 2021.

However, the core inflation rate, which strips out government-controlled prices and volatile food prices, rose to 2.21%, the highest since July 2023, from 2.09% in the previous month. Analysts had predicted the core inflation rate would stay steady.

The headline rate was near the lower end of Bank Indonesia's (BI) target range of 1.5% and 3.5%. The central bank does not have a target for core inflation, but its officials often say its interest rate policy is also aimed at managing core inflation, which better reflects demand pressures.

BI cut interest rates in September and its governor has said it might further ease monetary policy given inflation is expected to stay low until 2025, but the timing of the next rate cut may depend on global market conditions.

CBy Jihoon Lee

SEOUL (Reuters) -South Korea's export growth slowed to a seven-month low in October, missing market expectations, in a sign of cooling global demand that puts further pressure on a stuttering economic recovery.

Outbound shipments from Asia's fourth-largest economy rose 4.6% from a year earlier to $57.52 billion, compared with gains of 7.5% the month before and slowing for the third month, official data on Friday showed. A Reuters poll of economists had tipped a 6.9% rise.

It was the 13th straight month exports grew in annual terms though they were the smallest increase since March.

On average per working day, exports were down 0.2%, their first fall since September 2023.

The trade data aligns with a survey showing South Korea's factory activity shrank for a second month in October, with output falling by the most in 16 months.

The trade-reliant economy barely grew in the third quarter, despite signs of recovery in consumer spending, as exports weakened, raising the chance for more stimulus to support growth.

Exports of semiconductors were up 40.3% to $12.5 billion in October, which was lower than an all-time high of $13.6 billion in September. Sales of cars rose 5.5%.

By destination, shipments to China rose 10.9% to a 25-month high of $12.2 billion. Those to the United States and European Union were up 3.4% and 5.7%, respectively.

Imports rose 1.7% to $54.35 billion in October, after gaining 2.2% in September, also weaker than a 2.0% rise expected by economists.

The country posted a monthly trade surplus of $3.17 billion, narrower than the previous month's $6.66 billion.

By Ann Saphir

(Reuters) -With inflation now only just above the Federal Reserve's 2% target and wage pressures easing, U.S. central bankers are widely expected to cut short-term borrowing costs next week in an effort to keep the labor market from further cooling.

But an uptick in underlying price pressures evident in data released on Thursday, what's likely to be a confusing monthly read on the labor market on Friday, and uncertainty over the outcome of the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election make the road for further interest rate reductions in December and especially next year less clear.

Inflation by the Fed's targeted measure, the year-over-year increase in the personal consumption expenditures price index, dropped to 2.1% in September, from 2.3% in August, a Commerce Department report on Thursday showed. The Fed aims for 2% inflation.

A separate report from the Labor Department showed the broad wage-growth gauge known as the employment cost index rose 0.8% in the third quarter from the previous quarter, the smallest increase since the second quarter of 2021.

A rise in labor costs was among the factors that had alarmed Fed policymakers in late 2021, prompting the central bank's pivot to tighter policy to head off an upward spiral of rising wages and prices.

The fact that wage growth eased last quarter even as the economy expanded solidly may give Fed policymakers added confidence that inflation won't resurge, and a green light for interest rate cuts in their last two meetings of the year.

"We view the data overall as suggesting that upside inflation risks from a strong economy and labor market remain to date muted, and while the Fed and investors will need to keep this under ongoing review given the strength in the data, it is fundamentally constructive for risk and for the 'soft landing,'" Evercore ISI Vice Chairman Krishna Guha wrote in a note.

A soft landing refers to a scenario in which inflation cools but the labor market remains healthy and the economy avoids recession, a historically rare occurrence but one that so far has played out.

Futures contracts settling to the Fed's policy rate ratified that view, putting the chances of a 25-basis-point cut at the central bank's Nov. 6-7 meeting at about 94%, and giving a second 25-basis-point cut in December about a 70% chance.

The Fed last month lowered its policy rate by half of a percentage point to the 4.75%-5.00% range, in large part because policymakers felt that keeping it high even as inflation was falling could harm employment. 

ELECTION IMPACT

The release on Friday of the Labor Department's monthly employment report is likely to show the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% in October, economists polled by Reuters projected. They forecast that 113,000 jobs were added in October, which would be a sharp slowdown from September.

Fed policymakers, however, are expected to take little signal from that employment data, because recent hurricanes and an ongoing strike at Boeing (NYSE:BA) likely subtracted as much as 100,000 jobs in the month. That impact will be seen as only temporary rather than a sudden deterioration in the labor market.

Other data released on Thursday, however, may mitigate the confidence in a benign inflation trajectory.

Underlying price pressures, as tracked by the core PCE price index that excludes volatile food and energy items, ticked up to 2.7% from a year earlier, higher than the 2.6% economists had expected and matching the prior month's increase. The Fed watches core PCE closely to help forecast where inflation is heading, and further increases could raise doubts about the wisdom of easing monetary policy further.

"We believe the Fed will pause any rate cuts in December amid fears about a reacceleration of inflation," Michael Landsberg, chief investment officer at Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management, wrote in a note.

And if former U.S. President Donald Trump retakes the White House and voters return full control of Congress to his fellow Republicans on Tuesday, as betting markets project, promised tariff increases, tax cuts and mass deportations of migrants could bolster wage and inflation pressures, analysts say.

Financial markets in recent weeks have been pricing in higher inflation in five years.

"The election poses upside risks to the baseline forecast for medium-term wage growth," Bernard Yaros, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a note.