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Sheinbaum sworn in as Mexico's first female president, vows 'it's time for women'

By Diego Oré and Cassandra Garrison


MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Claudia Sheinbaum was sworn in as Mexico's first woman president on Tuesday, vowing to bolster women's rights and ensure Latin America's No. 2 economy remains a secure destination for international investment.


Sheinbaum, a 62-year-old scientist and former mayor of Mexico City, took the oath of office and received the presidential sash in a boisterous ceremony in Mexico's Congress, which marks the start of her six-year term. 


"It's time for transformation, it's time for women," she said, her voice rising with emotion.


"I'm a mother, a grandmother, a scientist and a woman of faith, and from today, by the will of the Mexican people, the president," she said.


Sheinbaum also used her first speech as head of state to address investor concerns after the passing of a sweeping judicial reform pushed by her predecessor, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. 


She reiterated that the central bank would be autonomous and told investors: "Rest assured that the investments of national and foreign shareholders will be safe in our country."


Alberto Ramos, head of Goldman Sachs Latin American economic research, said Sheinbaum will be judged on whether she can construct "a predictable and investment-friendly policy and regulatory framework."


"Disciplined management of the budget and of state-owned enterprises, progress on public security, and safe-guarding the integrity of key institutions will be key to preserving market sentiment and sovereign debt ratings," Ramos said, emphasizing the importance of heavily-indebted state oil company Pemex.


Sheinbaum pledged that the Mexican oil giant will look to maintain daily oil production at 1.8 million barrels, in line with current output.



The November presidential elections in the United States, Mexico's largest trading partner, could add to market volatility, especially if former President Donald Trump, who has vowed to increase tariffs on Mexican goods, wins. 


Sheinbaum's government will present its first budget before Nov. 15, which is expected to be highly scrutinized for clues on whether she will make good on commitments to reduce the fiscal deficit to 3.5% of gross domestic product from 5.9%, where it is predicted to close the year.


In an afternoon speech in the capital's historic Zocalo square, she offered 100 pledges, ranging from expanding public healthcare and education to building 1 million new homes, capping prices for key goods and sending Congress a package of reforms to battle gender violence and discrimination.     


Sheinbaum said she will unveil the package on Thursday, and said it will include proposed changes to the constitution and seek to reduce impunity and protect women in a nation that records some of the world's highest femicide rates.


"Our guide is the happiness and wellbeing of the people," she said. "I pledge to you to keep making history."


CONTINUITY WITH CHANGE?


Lopez Obrador, whose six-year term began in late 2018, managed to double Mexico's minimum wage, reduce poverty and unemployment, broaden the base of social programs and oversee a previous strengthening of the peso. Touting these successes boosted his popularity and helped usher Sheinbaum, his protégée, to a landslide victory in the June elections.


Mexican presidents are limited to serving a single six-year term.


Sheinbaum, however, who has promised "continuity with change," will inherit the largest budget deficit since the 1980s and lagging economic growth. 


Experts say Mexico's economy will require a tax reform to increase revenues, though Sheinbaum has for now ruled out a sweeping tax overhaul. 


Instead, she has said she will pursue other options, including improving the efficiency of tax collection at customs.


Sheinbaum "will have to deliver an important fiscal consolidation if she wants to keep the positive view that markets have today towards her," said Bernardo Keiserman, an economist at investment bank Bradesco BBI.


"We believe the government is committed to an adjustment, but delivering one sizable enough is not going to be an easy feat. The economy is weaker and likely weakening further," said Keiserman. 


Recently, the central bank cut its GDP growth forecast for this year to 1.5% from the previous 2.4% and lowered its estimate for 2025 to 1.2%. 


Nearshoring, the trend of companies moving production closer to their main market, has helped Mexico attract investment, but Sheinbaum will face a challenge to increase foreign investment while implementing the judicial reform.


The judicial reform, under which judges will be elected by popular vote, has scared investors and drawn criticism from the U.S. ambassador to Mexico, who said it threatened the rule of law.


"I'll govern for everyone and be assured that I'll put my knowledge, strength, my history, and my life itself at the service of the people and the country," said Sheinbaum.


2024-10-02 15:13:06
Airlines scramble to divert flights after Iran missile attack

PARIS (Reuters) - Israel's neighbours closed airspace and airline crews skirted an escalating conflict, with many seeking diversions, after Iran fired a salvo of ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday.


A spokesperson for tracking service FlightRadar24 said flights diverted "anywhere they could," and a snapshot of traffic in the region showed flights spreading in wide arcs to the north and south, with many converging on Cairo and Istanbul.


FlightRadar24 said Istanbul and Antalya in southern Turkey were becoming congested, forcing some airlines to divert south.


Iran launched the strikes in retaliation for Israel's campaign against Tehran's Hezbollah allies in Lebanon, and Israel vowed a "painful response" against its enemy.


Eurocontrol, a pan-European air traffic control agency, earlier sent a warning to pilots about the escalating conflict.


"A major missile attack has been launched against Israel in the last few minutes. At present the entire country is under a missile warning," it said in an urgent navigation bulletin.


Shortly afterwards it announced the closure of Jordanian and Iraqi airspace as well as the closure of a key crossing point into airspace controlled by Cyprus.


An Iraqi pilot bulletin said its Baghdad-controlled airspace was "closed due to security until further notice".


Iraq's transport ministry later announced the reopening of Iraqi airspace to incoming and outgoing civilian flights at Iraqi airports. FlightRadar24 said on X that "it will be a while before flights are active there again".


Jordan also reopened its airspace after closing it following the volley of Iranian missiles fired towards Israel, the Jordanian state news agency reported.


Lebanon's airspace will be closed to air traffic for a two-hour period on Tuesday, Transport Minister Ali Hamie said on X.


The latest disruptions are expected to deal a further blow to an industry already facing a host of restrictions due to conflicts between Israel and Hamas, and Russia and Ukraine.

2024-10-02 12:20:47
Asia stocks slide, oil extends gains on Middle East risks


 By Kevin Buckland


TOKYO (Reuters) - Asia stocks sank on Wednesday, catching up with the sell-off on Wall Street after Iran's ballistic missile strike on Israel provoked fears of a wider regional conflict, while crude oil pushed higher on the risk of supply disruptions.


Investors flocked to safer assets, pushing U.S. Treasury bond yields down in Asian time, while gold hovered near an all-time high.


The safe-haven dollar traded close to its strongest in three weeks versus the euro. Macroeconomics also buoyed the dollar, with a resilient U.S. job market arguing for a smaller Federal Reserve interest-rate cut in November, and euro zone inflation trends backing a European Central Bank easing this month.


Japan's Nikkei slumped 1.5% as of 0022 GMT, while South Korea's KOSPI dropped 1.3% and Australia's benchmark lost 0.3%.


MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares slipped about 0.5%.


Hong Kong's Hang Seng had yet to open after a holiday on Tuesday. Mainland Chinese markets are shut for the week-long Golden Week holiday. Trading in Taiwan was suspended due to a typhoon.


U.S. S&P 500 stock index futures weakened 0.16%, after the cash index lost 0.9% overnight.


"In the chain of potential market volatility shocks, geopolitics will typically trump economics, corporate earnings, or a central bank response - largely because most market players are poor at pricing risk around these events," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone.


"While these events typically reconcile in a market positive fashion, the tail risk it can throw up is clearly significant," Weston said. "The situation remains fluid, and the slightest calming or increased aggression in the rhetoric from Israel or Iran could result in a sizeable impact on sentiment in markets."+


Iran said early on Wednesday that its missile attack on Israel was finished barring further provocation, although Israel and the U.S. promised retaliation.


Brent crude futures gained more than 1% to $74.33 per barrel, extending the 2.5% advance from Tuesday. U.S. WTI futures gained 1.3% to $70.73 per barrel, after Tuesday's 2.4% rally.


Gold eased 0.16% to $2,658.63 per ounce, following a more than 1% jump in the previous session that brought it close to last month's record high at $2,685.42.


Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields ticked down 1.5 basis points (bps) to 3.7278%.


The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency versus the euro and five other major rivals, was steady at 101.21 after pushing as high as 101.39 on Tuesday for the first time since Sept. 19.


Europe's shared currency was little changed at $1.1070 following a 0.6% drop in the previous session, when it dipped to $1.1046 for the first time since Sept. 12.


Euro area data on Tuesday showed inflation fell below the ECB's 2% target last month, bolstering bets for a quarter-point rate cut on Oct. 17.


Meanwhile, U.S. figures overnight showed a solid economy, a day after Fed Chair Jerome Powell pushed back against the likelihood of another 50 basis point rate cut when the U.S. central bank meets next month.


Job openings unexpectedly increased in August after two straight monthly decreases, but hiring was soft and consistent with a slowing labour market.


Private payrolls data is due later on Wednesday, ahead of potentially crucial monthly non-farm payrolls numbers on Friday.


U.S. politics will also be in focus, as Democrat Tim Walz and Republican JD (NASDAQ:JD) Vance go head to head in a vice-presidential debate on Wednesday.

2024-10-02 10:54:57
UK pay awards hold at 2-year low, IDR survey shows

LONDON (Reuters) - Pay settlements awarded by British employers held at their lowest in two years in the three months to August, according to a survey that could reassure the Bank of England as it considers whether to cut interest rates again.


Incomes Data Research said on Wednesday that the median pay settlement awarded by major employers held at 4.0% for the second month in a row.


Median pay awards in the public sector stood at 4.5%, above those in the private sector which slowed to 4.1%.


"The differing outcomes in the private and public sectors reflect the cycle of pay between the two, with the public sector currently in the 'catching-up' phase, after a lengthy period in which pay awards lagged behind those in the private sector," Zoe Woolacott, senior researcher at IDR, said.


Finance minister Rachel Reeves announced above-inflation pay increases worth 9.4 billion pounds ($12.53 billion) for public sector workers including teachers and doctors shortly after the Labour Party won a parliamentary election in July.


Official figures last month showed British private sector wage growth cooled to a more than two-year low of 4.9% in the three months to July.


The BoE is monitoring wage growth, and expects private-sector pay to slow to 3% in late 2025.


The central bank, which cut its key Bank Rate in August for the first time since 2020 but kept it at 5% on Sept. 19, is expected to lower borrowing costs by a further quarter point at its November meeting.


The IDR analysis was based on 39 pay deals which covered more than 740,000 workers between June 1 and Aug. 31.


($1 = 0.7505 pounds)

2024-10-02 08:57:35
Fed's Powell set to speak as economists fret about a policy mistake, election risk

By Howard Schneider


NASHVILLE, Tennessee (Reuters) - A mistake by the U.S. central bank in setting interest rates during the last phase of its inflation battle is the main risk that could undercut the economy over the next year, according to a new survey of economists released as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was set to speak on Monday.


Among 32 professional forecasters surveyed recently by the National Association for Business Economics, 39% cited a "monetary policy mistake" as the "greatest downside risk to the U.S. economy over the next 12 months." By contrast, 23% regarded the outcome of the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election as the biggest downside risk and the same number cited an intensification of the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.


The responses in the survey, which was released on Sunday, show the intense focus on the Fed as it eases monetary policy while hoping to both keep inflation on a steady decline back to its 2% target and avoid a significant additional rise in an unemployment rate that has been increasing modestly for a year.


Powell is scheduled to address the association at 12:55 p.m. CDT (1755 GMT) in Nashville, Tennessee, and is expected to elaborate on the Fed's decision to cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point at its Sept. 17-18 meeting and on the considerations that will frame an expected series of reductions in borrowing costs over the rest of this year and in 2025.


The Fed is expected to cut rates again, either by a quarter or half of a percentage point, at its Nov. 6-7 policy meeting.


Overall risks to the economy are increasing, the association's panel of economists indicated, with 55% saying it was more likely the economy would perform worse than expected than do better - with Fed policy topping the list of possible speed bumps.


As it stands, the panel at the median said U.S. economic growth is expected to slow to 1.8% next year, from an estimated 2.6% this year, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, from the current 4.2%, and inflation ending next year at 2.1%.


Two-thirds of respondents said they did not expect a recession until at least 2026.


'JUST IN TIME'


Such results would likely be cheered by Powell and the Fed as a textbook "soft landing." Inflation, as measured by the central bank's preferred personal consumption expenditures price index, has fallen from a peak above 7% in 2022 to 2.2% last month without a recession or a sharp rise in the unemployment rate. While the jobless rate has risen to 4.2% from half-century lows last year of 3.4%, it remains well below the average of 5.7% recorded in Bureau of Labor Statistics data since the late 1940s.


But there's broad disagreement about how to finish the job, highlighting concerns about the Fed's ability to avoid either keeping borrowing costs and financial conditions too tight, and slowing the economy unnecessarily, or loosening so quickly that inflation rebounds.


While the median of the panel's forecasters said the current policy rate is where it should be following the Fed's recent rate cut, opinion was roughly split on that issue - with a majority feeling the central bank is already off track.


The rate move came "just in time," 65% of the respondents said.


But only one-third of them believe the current policy rate is "just right," while another third "believe the rate should be less than 4.75% and 30% believe it should be 5% or higher," the survey showed.


Among other risks cited, respondents were divided over what election outcome posed the greater threat to the economy.


Having control of Congress and the White House in the hands of one party can make decision-making smoother on issues like lifting the debt ceiling or setting a budget, but can also give a president more leeway to act on campaign promises, such as tax cuts or trade policies.


As a negative risk, 13% said a Republican sweep of the White House and Congress would pose a threat, compared to 10% who felt that way about a Democratic sweep of the executive and legislative branches of government.


By contrast, 7% of respondents viewed a Democratic or Republican sweep in a positive light.


Divided government was seen as a downside risk by 17% of respondents and an upside risk by 13%.

2024-09-30 15:55:45
China stocks set for best month in nearly a decade on stimulus cheer

SHANGHAI/SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Chinese stocks extended a blistering rally on Monday with those in the mainland headed for their best month in almost a decade, as Beijing rolled out further stimulus measures to arrest a slowdown in the broad economy.


Benchmark indexes in mainland China began the week on a solid footing after clocking their best weekly performance in nearly 16 years on Friday, with the CSI300 blue-chip index last up more than 6.22%.


The Shanghai Composite Index jumped 5.7%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 3.34%.


Shares of property companies rose sharply in response to China's central bank late on Sunday saying that it would tell banks to lower mortgage rates for existing home loans before Oct. 31, as part of sweeping policies to support the country's beleaguered property market.


Adding to efforts to reverse the property downturn, Guangzhou city announced the same day the lifting of all restrictions on home purchases, while Shanghai and Shenzhen eased curbs on buying.


"The market is still surprised by China's policy support and momentum is still continuing," said Kenny Ng, strategist at China Everbright (OTC:CHFFF) Securities International in Hong Kong.


Mainland-listed property stocks advanced 6.4%, while the Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index charged 8.4% higher.


Shares of consumer staples last traded 7% higher. The smaller Shenzhen index soared 8.2%.


For the month, the CSI300 index was eyeing a gain of more than 18%, its best performance since December 2014. The Shanghai Composite Index was similarly on track to end September with a 14.8% increase, its most since April 2015.


The Hang Seng Index was set for its best month since November 2022 with a 14.7% rise.

"A coordinated stimulus blitz suggests that China has reached a 'whatever it takes' moment with economic risks reaching Beijing's pain threshold," said Eli Lee, chief investment strategist at Bank of Singapore.

"Beyond a short-term rebound, although it is now premature at this point to assess, we cannot rule out that this could be the start of a sustainable bull market if Beijing delivers sufficiently sizeable stimulus to successfully drive a turnaround in macro fundamentals."

Sunday's developments were the latest in a slew of aggressive stimulus measures announced by Beijing last week - ranging from outsized rate cuts to fiscal support - in an attempt to shore up its ailing economy.

That lit a fire under beaten-down Chinese equities that had been languishing near multi-year lows earlier this month, as investors fretted over China's growth prospects.

Particularly in a boost for stocks, the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) also introduced two fresh tools to boost the capital market, one of which includes a swap programme allowing funds, insurers and brokers easier access to funding in order to buy stocks.

The CSI300 index soared nearly 16% last week in the wake of the announcements and the broader Shanghai composite jumped nearly 13%, both scoring their biggest weekly gains since November 2008. The Hang Seng Index also delivered its biggest weekly rise since 1998, and fifth largest in the last half-century. (This story has been corrected to remove 'Hong Kong' in paragraph 2)
2024-09-30 14:40:08
Japan factory output falls, casting doubts about pace of economic recovery

By Satoshi Sugiyama


TOKYO (Reuters) -Japan's factory output tumbled last month driven by typhoon-led disruptions in motor vehicle production and weak U.S. sales, with the government and analysts cautioning about a subdued outlook that raises the hurdle for a solid economic recovery.


Industrial output fell 3.3% in August from the previous month, data released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) on Monday showed, worse than a median market forecast for a 0.9% drop.


"Taking into account overseas factors, it is difficult to expect a significant increase in production in the near future, and the pace of recovery will remain moderate," said Shungo Akimoto, market economist at Mizuho Securities.


Motor vehicles production dropped 10.6% in August compared to a month ago, as Typhoon Shanshan forced a swath of automakers to suspend operations, a METI official said. Automaker's certification scandals, which led to the production suspension of three models domestically, also put downward pressure on output.


Weak auto sales in the U.S. might have also dented motor vehicle output, said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.


Production machinery also fell, including a chip-making machinery down sharply by 18.7% month-on-month in August. The METI attributed the decrease to weaker overseas demand, with exports to Taiwan dropping significantly.


Although manufacturers surveyed by METI expect seasonally adjusted output to increase 2.0% in September and expand 6.1% in October, those production forecasts tend to come out stronger than the actual results.


The July-September output would be lower than the second quarter even if September output grows as anticipated, a METI official said.


"The weight on production was gradually being lifted, but there was a strong sense of uncertainty when we thought about whether we could have a bright outlook in the future," the official said.


Separate data showed Japanese retail sales rose 2.8% in August from a year earlier, above the median market forecast for a 2.3% rise.


Compared with the previous month, retail sales edged up 0.8% in August, following a 0.2% gain in July, the data showed.


Japan's economy expanded an annualised 2.9% in the second quarter as steady wage hikes underpinned consumer spending. Capital expenditure continues to grow, though soft demand in China and slowing U.S. growth cloud the outlook for the export-reliant country.


2024-09-30 13:12:36
Asia shares dragged by Nikkei, China keeps rallying

By Wayne Cole


SYDNEY (Reuters) -Asia share markets turned hesitant on Monday as strife in the Middle East offset more stimulus measures in China, while the Nikkei dived on concerns Japan's new prime minister favoured normalising interest rates.


The rush of stimulus helped outweigh a poor manufacturing survey and lift the blue-chip CSI300 another 3.0%, having already jumped 16% last week. The Shanghai Composite climbed 4.4%, on top of last week's 13% rally.


Continued Israeli strikes across Lebanon added geopolitical uncertainty to the mix, though oil prices were still restrained by the risk of increased supply. [O/R]


The week is packed with major U.S. economic data including a payrolls report that could decide whether the Federal Reserve delivers another outsized rate cut in November.


The Nikkei led the early action with a dive of 4.1% as investors anxiously waited for more direction from new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who has been critical of the Bank of Japan's easy policies in the past.


However, he sounded more conciliatory over the weekend saying monetary policy "must remain accommodative" given the state of the economy.


That helped the dollar nudge up 0.2% to 142.52 yen, after sliding 1.8% on Friday from a 146.49 top. [USD/]


"Ishiba has endorsed the BoJ's intention to normalise monetary policy, albeit leaving it uncertain as to the pace and timing," said HSBC economist Jun Takazawa.


"If additional stimulus measures are realised, this would also likely buttress the recovering trend in spending, thereby strengthening the BoJ's conviction to raise interest rates at a gradual pace," he added. "All in all, we continue to see a constructive outlook for Japan."


Over in China, the central bank said it would tell banks to lower mortgage rates for existing home loans by the end of October, likely by 50 basis points on average.


That follows a barrage of monetary, fiscal and liquidity support measures announced last week in Beijing's biggest stimulus package since the pandemic.


"We believe deflation risks are now being taken more seriously," said Christian Keller, head of economic research at Barclays. "At the same time, the Politburo suggests a consensus has likely been reached in Beijing that fiscal stimulus and central government leverage are necessary to arrest the downturn."


"This is an important shift in a market that was looking for more than just the bare minimum."


WALL ST ON A ROLL


The rally in China helped MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan firm 0.3%, having surged 6.1% last week to a seven-month high.


Wall Street also had a rousing week helped by a benign reading on core U.S. inflation on Friday that left the door open to another half-point rate cut from the Fed.


Futures imply around a 53% chance the Fed will ease by 50 basis points on Nov. 7, though the presidential election two days earlier remains a major unknown.


A host of Fed speakers will have their say this week, led by Chair Jerome Powell later on Monday. Also due are data on job openings and private hiring, along with ISM surveys on manufacturing and services.


EUROSTOXX 50 futures FTSE futures were little changed in early trade. S&P 500 futures were flat on Monday, while Nasdaq futures dipped a fraction. The S&P 500 index is up 20% year-to-date and on track for its strongest January-September performance since 1997.


In currency markets, the dollar index was flat at 100.41 after easing 0.3% last week. The euro stood at $1.1167 , having bounced on Friday in the wake of the benign U.S. inflation report. [USD/]


The euro zone releases its inflation figures this week, along with producer prices and unemployment. German inflation and retail sales are due later on Monday, while European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks to parliament.


A softer dollar combined with lower bond yields to help gold reach record highs at $2,685 an ounce. It was last at $2,656 an ounce, and on track for its best quarter since 2016. [GOL/]


Oil prices crept higher at tensions in the Middle East offset concerns about possible increased supply from Saudi Arabia. [O/R]


Brent rose 61 cents to $72.59 a barrel, while U.S. crude gained 44 cents to $68.60 per barrel.


2024-09-30 11:31:53
Top 5 things to watch in markets in the week ahead

Investing.com -- Investors may get some indications about the size of the next Federal Reserve rate cut this week as the latest US jobs report is released and Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks. Meanwhile, the final quarter of what has been a turbulent year so far in markets gets underway. Here's your look at what's happening in markets for the week ahead.


1. US jobs report

The Fed kicked off its rate-cutting cycle with a super-sized 50 basis point cut earlier this month, but the labor market continues to be a focal point for investors gauging how rapidly the central bank will need to cut rates in coming months.


The Labor Department is to release the October nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, with economists expecting the US economy to have added 144,000 jobs.


Investors are keen to see whether the jobs data will support expectations for a soft-landing scenario, in which the Fed tames inflation without badly impacting growth.


Weaker than expected data could revive fears over the prospect of a recession, while unexpectedly strong jobs growth may stir worries that the Fed will not cut rates as deeply as expected as it seeks to avoid an inflation flare-up.


2. Powell remarks

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak on the economic outlook before the National Association for Business Economics on Monday.


In a note dated Friday, analysts at Deutsche Bank said they expect Powell's comments to largely echo his post-meeting press conference remarks, where he justified the outsized rate cut by the confidence gained on inflation and the clear shift in downside risks, particularly to the labor market.


Investors will also get the chance to hear from several other Fed officials over the course of the week, including regional Fed presidents Bowman, Bostic, Barkin and Williams.


Ahead of Friday’s jobs report Tuesday's JOLTS report for August and Wednesday's ADP data on private sector hiring will give a broad outlook on the state of the labor market.


3, Q4 kicks off

The fourth quarter gets underway on Tuesday after a turbulent few months in markets.


August was a volatile month with the unwinding of the yen carry trade coming at almost exactly the same time that the Mag 7 tech bulls broke down and recession fears flared after a weaker than expected US jobs report.


Stocks have since rallied to fresh record highs, but the yen is about to clinch its best quarterly performance since the 2008 global financial meltdown, benchmark global borrowing costs and oil are both down almost 15% and China is opening the stimulus spigots.


The final quarter will be dominated by November's US election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris so more volatility is likely in store.


4. Eurozone inflation

The eurozone is to release flash September inflation data on Tuesday, which will be closely watched as European Central Bank officials mull whether to cut rates again in October.


Economists are expecting the annual rate of inflation to come in at 1.9%, dropping below the ECB’s 2% target for the first time since June 2021 thanks to lower energy prices, though it's expected to rise again in the final months of the year.


Investors are now pricing in a slightly more than 50% chance of a 25 basis-point October rate cut they thought was unlikely just last week as euro zone business activity unexpectedly contracted in September, stoking fears the ECB is behind the curve.


5. Oil prices

Oil prices settled higher on Friday but fell on the week as investors weighed expectations for higher global supply against fresh stimulus from top crude importer China.


On a weekly basis, Brent settled down around 3%, while crude futures fell by around 5%.


China's central bank on Friday announced fresh stimulus measures aimed at bringing economic growth back toward this year's target of roughly 5%.


But concerns about oversupply weighed following reports that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, together known as OPEC+, will go ahead with plans to increase production by 180,000 bpd each month starting from December.


Heightened tensions in the Middle East, raising the risk of supply disruption, continued to underpin the oil market.


Energy traders will be looking closely at labor market data in the coming days as interest rate cuts typically boost economic activity and energy demand.


--Reuters contributed reporting

2024-09-30 08:54:42
Yen slides as Japan's leadership contest heats up; China stimulus buoys sentiment

By Ankur Banerjee


SINGAPORE (Reuters) -The yen slid on Friday as investors awaited results from a run-off in Japan's contest to replace its prime minister, while China's spree of stimulus measures kept risk-sensitive currencies aloft.


The yen fell more than 1% to 146.495, its lowest since Sept. 3, with markets bracing for the victory of hardline nationalist Sanae Takaichi, a vocal opponent of further interest rate hikes, in one the country's most unpredictable leadership votes in decades.


Out of a record nine-strong field, economic security minister Takaichi and former defence minister Shigeru Ishiba, amassed the most votes and qualified for the second round expected to conclude at 0630 GMT.


"If Takaichi wins and dollar/yen goes back to 160, markets might see an earlier BOJ hike or FX interventions again, although with top currency diplomat Kanda gone those might be a lot less punchy than previously," UBS analysts said in a note.


Meanwhile, China's spree of stimulus measures this week continued to boost risk appetite, lifting stocks, commodities and risk-sensitive currencies.


Steps so far have included lowering the amount of cash banks must hold as reserves by 50 basis points to free up more funds for lending and a slew of cuts in key interest rates.


Sterling was a shade lower at $1.3381 but remained close to the 2-1/2 year high it touched this week, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars also held near multi-year highs due to China stimulus plans.


The Aussie eased to $0.68705, but was near the 18-month high it touched on Wednesday. The kiwi last fetched $0.6298, not far from its nine-month high. [AUD/]


On Thursday, China's leaders pledged to support the struggling economy through "forceful" interest rate cuts and adjustments to fiscal and monetary policies, stoking expectations for more stimulus.


The remarks, which included guidance to officials to support household consumption and stabilise the troubled real estate market, came in an official summary of a monthly meeting of top Communist Party officials, the Politburo.


"It certainly appears that property and the economy have become an urgent priority for the Politburo judging by the timing of the announcements and the specific mention of fiscal measures," said Jon Withaar, who manages an Asia special situations hedge fund at Pictet Asset Management.


"We are positive on the change in language but want to see specific details to be able to make a informed decision about the efficacy of such measures."


DRIFTING DOLLAR


Data on Thursday suggested the U.S. labour market remained fairly healthy, while other reports showed corporate profits increased at a more robust pace than initially thought in the second quarter, highlighting an upbeat economic outlook.


The dollar, however, remained on the back foot as traders priced in 73 basis points (bps) of easing for the rest of the year, with a 51% chance for another outsized half-percentage-point cut, according to CME Group's (NASDAQ:CME) FedWatch Tool.


The Federal Reserve has recently signalled a shift in focus away from inflation and towards keeping the labour market healthy, delivering a larger-than-usual 50 bps interest rate cut last week.


The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, was last at 100.86, not far from the 14-month low of 100.21 it touched on Wednesday.


The euro was steady at $1.11615, just below the 14-month high of $1.1214 it touched on Wednesday.


Investors will keep an eye on the personal consumption expenditures price index due to be released later on Friday, but analysts do not expect the data to materially shift market pricing for U.S. rates unless there is a huge miss.

2024-09-27 16:21:09