By Howard Schneider

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -A united U.S. Federal Reserve agreed to hold interest rates steady at the June meeting as a way to buy time and assess whether further rate hikes would be needed, even as the vast bulk expected they would eventually need to tighten policy further, according to meeting minutes released on Wednesday.

While "some participants" wanted to move ahead with a rate hike in June because progress in cooling inflation had been slow, "almost all participants judged it appropriate or acceptable to maintain" the federal funds rate at the existing 5% to 5.25%, the minutes said.

"Most of those participants observed that leaving the target range unchanged at this meeting would allow them more time to assess the economy's progress," toward returning inflation to 2% from its current level more than twice that.

The minutes added detail to the policy statement and economic projections issued after the June 13-14 session, when the Fed ended its 10-meeting streak of rate hikes with a decision to hold the benchmark federal funds rate steady.

Markets were little changed after the minutes, with traders in futures tied to the Fed policy rate continuing to price in a rate hike in July and about a one-in-three chance of another increase before the end of the year.

While Fed staff still saw a "mild recession" beginning later this year, they now viewed avoiding a downturn as only a little less likely than their baseline. Meanwhile policymakers wrestled with data showing a continued tight job market and only modest improvements in inflation.

Officials also tried to reconcile headline numbers showing continued economic strength with evidence of possible weakness - of household employment figures that pointed to a weaker labor market than the payroll numbers indicated, or national income data that seemed weaker than the more prominent readings of gross domestic product.

The logic of waiting, whether it amounted to a "skip" of one meeting or turned into a longer pause, reflected what officials said was still deep uncertainty around whether the Fed had already raised rates enough to tame inflation -- and only needed to wait for the impact of tighter policy to be realized -- or still needed to lean on the economy harder.

"Most participants observed that uncertainty about the outlook for the economy and inflation remained elevated and that additional information would be valuable for considering the appropriate stance of monetary policy," the minutes said.

The projections issued after the June meeting showed 16 of 18 officials still expected the policy interest rate would need to rise at least another quarter of a percentage point by the end of the year.

In that context, Fed Chair Jerome Powell at a press conference after the June meeting said the decision marked a switch in strategy, with the central bank focused more on just how much additional policy tightening might be needed and less on maintaining a steady pace of increases.

"Stretching out into a more moderate pace is appropriate to allow you to make that judgment" over time, Powell said.

Investors in contracts tied to the overnight federal funds rate feel the Fed is highly likely to raise the benchmark rate by a quarter point, to a range between 5.25% and 5.5%, at its July 25-26 meeting.

SHANGHAI/HONG KONG (Reuters) - Chinese investors are rushing offshore to make dollar deposits and buy Hong Kong insurance in a signal domestic confidence is languishing and that the ailing yuan faces more pressure.

The outflows highlight deep-seated concern about the state of China's economy as its much-awaited pandemic recovery stalls. Consumer spending is flagging, the property market and stock markets are in the doldrums and cash is piling up in savings.

Brokers say individuals are responsible for the surge and it shows no sign of letting up, which analysts warn could put further pressure on the yuan as it teeters at eight-month lows.

Mainland Chinese holdings under a nascent scheme allowing investment in Hong Kong and Macau wealth products have more than doubled since the end of last year to 814 million yuan ($110 million). New premiums collected on Hong Kong insurance policies leapt a staggering 2,686% to $9.6 billion in the first quarter of 2023.

"More and more people realise they cannot put their eggs in one basket," said Helen Zhao, an insurance broker busy helping mainland clients sign Hong Kong deals, citing Sino-U.S. frictions and pessimism about China's outlook as motivating factors.

Hong Kong insurance has long been a channel for Chinese buying assets abroad, with the policies providing more protection than what's available on the mainland, and attendant savings and investment products mostly denominated in dollars with a global remit.

AIA Group (OTC:AAGIY), Prudential and Manulife all reported a jump in business, citing contributions from mainland investors.

A wealth manager at Noah Holdings (NYSE:NOAH) said he recently arranged a group of mainland clients to sign insurance contracts in "long queues", many unsettled by the abruptness of China's lurch in December from COVID-19 zero-tolerance to living with the virus.

"Some clients were a bit of shocked by the policy U-turn, and they grow pessimistic about China's economy," he said. "The burst of insurance buying in Hong Kong reflects a gloomy domestic outlook, and worries about an uncertain future."

Savings insurance products in Hong Kong offer a minimum yield of 4.5%, he said, better than 3% offered on the mainland. He requested anonymity as he isn't authorised to speak publicly.

Noah Holdings said in an emailed statement that offshore insurance is a convenient tool for global asset allocation, while Hong Kong's location makes it a natural destination for mainland investors.

Dollar deposits in Hong Kong, meanwhile, offer a hedge against movements in the yuan and, for a one-year term, yield 4%, according to Bank of China. On the mainland, one-year dollar deposits yield 2.8%, while yuan deposits yield 1.65%.

OFFSHORE DEMAND

Such returns are the pull factor. The gap between two-year U.S. and Chinese government bond yields is its widest in 16 years, in favour of the U.S., and global stocks are going up while China's are going sideways.

"Offshore demand for policies denominated in Hong Kong dollars is low – U.S. dollar-denominated policies are more prevalent, to provide access to global asset allocation," said Lawrence Lam, chief executive officer at Prudential Hong Kong.

To be sure, total demand remains below pre-COVID levels, and a surge in interest was expected to coincide with China's borders reopening, since signing policies requires a visit to Hong Kong.

Yet it comes as the yuan is looking increasingly fragile. A previous, and larger, rush of outflows in 2016 prompted Beijing to ratchet up capital controls and unveil other measures to curtail insurance buying.

The wealth manager at Noah fears that a sustained rush into Hong Kong insurance risks inviting Beijing's policy tightening.

Chinese authorities have already stepped up efforts in the last few weeks to shore up the yuan, with state banks selling dollars and the central bank warning it would guard against the risks of large exchange rate movements.

Hao Hong, chief economist at GROW Investment Group, notes the outflows also coincide with exporters' reluctance to repatriate dollar proceeds - another weight on the currency and sign of low confidence in the economy.

The yuan's real exchange rate, he points out, is below the nadir seen during China's 2015-16 stock market crash and capital flight.

While that makes for a possible source of a yuan rebound later in the year, according to Tan Xiaofen, professor at the School of Economics and Management of Beihang University, caution is likely to drive individual outflows ahead.

"We've seen some changes to the risk attitudes of mainland visitors, which has moderated to a more balanced approach to their investments," said Sami Abouzahr, head of investments and wealth solutions at HSBC in Hong Kong.

"They remain interested in investment opportunities but are also paying greater attention to their health and legacy needs through medical and legacy planning insurance solutions."

($1 = 7.2513 Chinese yuan renminbi)

By Xinghui Kok

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Singapore's central bank warned on Wednesday of weak near-term growth for one of Asia's top financial hubs and said its fight against rising prices was not yet over, even as it lowered its 2023 headline inflation forecast.In an annual review by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), Managing Director Ravi Menon said Singapore's inflation would ease significantly thanks to a tight monetary policy stance, but the central bank would "not switch from inflation-fighting mode to growth-supporting mode".

Headline inflation slowed to 4.7% in May compared to the 5.4% recorded in the first quarter.

MAS now forecasts 2023 headline inflation at 4.5% to 5.5%, lower than the 5.5% to 6.5% seen previously, Menon told reporters.

Core inflation is seen at 2.5% to 3.0% by the end of the year, versus an earlier 2.5% forecast because of rising travel-related costs, he added.

MAS is ready to adjust monetary policy, "especially if inflation momentum were to re-accelerate," Menon said. "We are closely monitoring the evolving growth-inflation dynamics and remain vigilant to risks on either side."

The central bank left its monetary policy settings unchanged in April for the first time in two years as Singapore's economy contracted in the first quarter this year, raising fears of a recession.

That move surprised economists, who had expected a sixth straight round of tightening in a streak that had included two off-cycle moves in 2022. MAS' next scheduled policy review is in October.

Instead of interest rates, the MAS manages policy by letting the local dollar rise or fall against the currencies of its main trading partners.

Gross domestic product would be at the mid-point of the 0.5% to 2.5% range expected this year, down from 3.6% in 2022, because Singapore remained exposed to a global slowdown and geopolitical uncertainties, MAS Chairman Tharman Shanmugaratnam said in a report accompanying the annual review.

Maybank economist Chua Hak Bin said the central bank must not lose focus on combating inflation.

"The government has plenty of fiscal options to support growth... and levers to cushion the downturn and may come up with a fiscal support package if a recession materialises," he said.

Singapore was also well positioned for a second hike in its goods and services tax in 2024 if inflation falls to 2.5% to 3% in the final quarter of this year, Menon said. The sales tax will increase to 9% next January, after increasing from 7% to the current 8% at the beginning of 2023.

The central bank's monetary policy tightening streak was also reflected in a net loss for the MAS of S$30.8 billion ($22.81 billion) in the fiscal year 2022-2023, he said.

($1 = 1.3500 Singapore dollars)

(This story has been refiled to correct the first word in paragraph 10)

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japanese firms offered the biggest pay hikes in three decades at this year's negotiations with workers, the country's largest trade union group said on Wednesday, a development economists say will help revive anaemic consumer demand.

A survey conducted by Rengo, Japan's umbrella trade union group, showed pay hikes first reported by unions at the largest employers in March were now broadening to workers at small and medium enterprises (SMEs), or those with unions of 300 or fewer members.

The final survey of 5,272 unions affiliated with Rengo showed an average pay hike of 3.58%, or 10,560 yen per month, the biggest increase since 3.9% seen in 1993. Among them, SMEs raised wages by 3.23%, also the fastest pace in three decades.

Wage growth is one of the key trends the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is closely watching as it considers if and when it should unwind its ultra-loose monetary stimulus.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has repeatedly stressed the need to keep policy accommodative until wages increase enough to keep price growth sustainably around its 2% target.

"Rising prices and a chronic labour crunch are driving up wages, which will continue to rise next year. What's important from now on is to bring real wages to positive territory," said Hisashi Yamada, economist and Hosei University professor.

"Rising wages will help stabilise inflation at 2% towards next year, keeping the central bank under pressure to scrap yield curve control sooner or later."

By Andrea Shalal

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's first trip to China will focus on recalibrating ties between the world's two largest economies, as military communications remain frozen and Beijing's new restrictions on exports of some metals spark fresh tensions.

U.S. officials say they expect "candid" discussions during Yellen's July 6-9 trip, after Beijing's abrupt announcement on Monday of controls on exports of some gallium and germanium products widely used in semiconductors, as well as a new counterespionage law, both seen as potentially harmful to U.S. firms.

No major breakthroughs are expected, but Yellen will push to open new lines of communication and coordination on economic matters, and stress the consequences of supplying lethal aid to Russia, U.S. officials say.

Chinese officials are concerned about the Biden administration's plans to limit U.S. companies' China investments and what they see as moves to decouple the two economies. China's economy is recovering more slowly than expected from COVID lockdowns and the job market is tough.

Yellen's long-anticipated trip follows weeks after Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Beijing and agreed with Chinese President Xi Jinping that the two countries' rivalry should not veer into conflict, and amid a freeze in military communications between the two nations.

"There is no substitute for diplomacy," said one senior administration official. "A phone call is just not the same."

Wu Xinbo, a professor at China's Fudan University, described Yellen as a "voice of reason" within the Biden administration, and said China hopes Yellen's visit can "improve the mood" for potential future talks with Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo on tariffs and sanctions on Chinese tech companies.

But some critics said the meetings were sidestepping important issues.

Derek Scissors, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said Yellen was embarking on "an empty trip," given China's refusal to engage on potentially dangerous military issues.

"They look like supplicants. On the security side, the Chinese won't talk to us, so it looks like the economic side is being used as a substitute," he said. "It's not unimportant, but it's unpleasant and odd."

IMPROVING COMMUNICATION

Yellen is expected to focus on economic issues, but she will remind Chinese counterparts that any move to supply lethal aid to Russia - in violation of sanctions on Russia over its war in Ukraine - could trigger sanctions on Chinese entities, one senior administration official said.

"We routinely hear Chinese assurances that they will not deliver lethal assistance. We are holding them to that, and we'll continue to watch," the official said.

The U.S. believes China is unnerved by last month's mutiny by Russia's Wagner mercenary group and the weakness of the Russian military, the official said, but Beijing relies on a stable Russia for food and fuel.

Both Blinken and Yellen's visits are seen as critical to improving communication after the U.S. military shot down a Chinese spy balloon over the United States, and ahead of a possible meeting between President Joe Biden and Xi at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in San Francisco in November.

"Secretary Yellen’s trip is more than a step toward preparation for a potential Biden-Xi meeting at APEC. The top economic officials of the world’s two largest economies have barely spoken to each other in over three years, and that is dangerous for the global economy," said Scott Kennedy with the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

TRADE TARIFFS REMAIN

National Foreign Trade Council President Jake Colvin said the trip could help define a "new normal" and establish a floor under the bilateral relationship. But it won't end $360 billion in tariffs imposed under former President Donald Trump, or export controls that have gathered steam under Biden.

Despite the cooling relations, trade between the U.S. and China grew in 2022 for the third year in a row, U.S. Commerce Department data show.

"There's still opportunity in China for American businesses, farmers and workers," Colvin said. "We can't just be looking at this exclusively through the lens of de-risking."

Yellen will emphasize the need to work with Beijing on climate change, pandemic preparedness and debt distress, even as Washington continues to take targeted actions over human rights or security concerns, a senior Treasury official said.

She will tell her Chinese counterparts that Washington is not seeking to decouple the two economies, which together account for 40% of global economic output, while reserving the right to protect human rights and U.S. national security interests through targeted actions, the official added.

Yellen will meet for the first time with China's new Vice Premier He Lifeng, after seeing his predecessor, Liu He, in Zurich in January, one administration official said, predicting a different dynamic with the new vice premier, a Xi loyalist who is less comfortable in English and hails from a planning background, not finance and economics. "I would suspect it will be more formal," the official said.

Two other Cabinet secretaries, Commerce chief Raimondo and U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai, met in May with Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao. U.S. officials are also hoping to expand economic communication channels below the Cabinet level.

By Jamie McGeever

(Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist.

The most important Asian economic indicator from a pretty packed calendar on Wednesday, and biggest potential market-mover, will be China's services purchasing managers index report for June, which comes amid the latest ratcheting up of U.S.-Sino tensions.

Traders will also have Japanese, Australian and Indian services PMIs to digest, as well as the latest inflation data from Thailand and the Philippines, and can expect trading volume to return to more normal levels after the July 4 U.S. holiday.

Currency traders are on high alert for intervention from authorities in Beijing and Tokyo to slow the slide in the yuan and yen, respectively, while Asian stocks ex-Japan will be looking to rise for a fourth day in a row - a winning streak not seen for two months.

The main focus, however, will be on China. The economy has sputtered this year, triggering downward revisions to GDP growth estimates, widespread underperformance of Chinese assets, and increasing calls for fiscal and monetary stimulus.

China's economic surprises index shows just how much recent data have undershot analysts' expectations - it is deeply negative, tumbling fast, and at its lowest in six months.

Service sector activity, however, has held up reasonably well and has expanded every month this year, according to the PMI data. A solid number could help soothe investors' concerns.

The yuan rose to a one-week high against the dollar on Tuesday as the central bank fixed the currency higher and major state banks again lowered their dollar deposit rates as authorities stepped up efforts to arrest the yuan's slide.

The political backdrop to this is the latest flare up in U.S.-Sino tensions.

China abruptly announced on Monday a series of curbs from Aug. 1 on exports of some metals widely used in semiconductors and electric vehicles, ramping up a trade war and potentially causing more disruption to global supply chains.

This comes ahead of a planned visit to Beijing by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen this week.

Elsewhere in local FX markets, the Australian dollar rose for a fourth day on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia left its benchmark cash rate on hold at 4.10%.

This was the second time in the RBA's tightening cycle it has stood pat on rates following April's shock pause, but was far less of a surprise - money markets had put only a one-in-three probability on a hike to 4.35%.

Aussie bulls latched onto the RBA's warning that further tightening might be needed to tame inflation, and overnight swaps are still pointing to almost 50 basis points of further tightening this year.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Wednesday:

- China, Japan, India, Australia services PMIs (June)

- Philippines CPI inflation (June)

- Thailand CPI inflation (June)

(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Alistair Bell)

Investing.com -- Global stocks search for direction with Wall Street set to remain closed on Tuesday for the July 4 holiday. Meanwhile, Meta gears up to release a platform to rival Twitter later this week in a bid to attract users unhappy with Elon Musk's management of the social media site. Elsewhere, China unveils export controls on two key minerals in the latest development of an ongoing war over microchips between Beijing and the West.

1. Global stocks muted amid U.S. holiday, light data calendar

European and Asian stock markets hovered broadly around the flatline on Tuesday as investors were searching for cues in a light data calendar and a U.S. holiday.

At 05:07 ET (09:07 GMT), the DAX index in Germany slipped 6 points or 0.04%, France's CAC 40 rose by 3 points or 0.05%, and the pan-European Stoxx 600 gained 1 point or 0.23%. In the U.K., the FTSE 100 index edged up by 8 points or 0.11%.

The muted trading in the region comes after shares in Asia moved in a flat-to-low range, with a string of weak data prints from major economies denting risk appetite. Japanese stocks, in particular, slid from 33-year highs, in a sign that a recent rally in equities in the country may be stalling.

Elsewhere, China's Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite posted small increases, while the KOSPI in South Korea shed 0.35%.

Markets on Wall Street, meanwhile, will be closed today for the Independence Day holiday.

2. Meta's Twitter rival

Facebook-owner Meta (NASDAQ:META) is set to unveil its answer to Twitter later this week, according to a listing in the Apple App Store, piling pressure on Elon Musk's social media company to retain users who have become disgruntled over the billionaire's management of the business.

Meta's new service, Threads, will launch on Thursday. The "text-based conversation" app, which will be directly linked to Meta's mega-popular photo-sharing platform Instagram, claims that it will be place "where communities come together to discuss everything from the topics you care about today to what'll be trending tomorrow."

The release of Threads could prove to be yet another challenge for Twitter. Users have already begun to seek alternatives to the platform in response to controversial decisions taken by Musk, who bought the company for $44 billion in October.

Most recently, Musk announced that limits will be placed on the number of posts that can be viewed, saying it was necessary in part to "address extreme levels of data scraping." The decision was widely slammed by users, many of whom pay monthly fees for increased prominence on the site.

3. China curbs exports of semiconductor metals

China has restricted access to exports of two crucial minerals used in the creation of computer chips, in the latest salvo in the war over semiconductors between Beijing and the West.

According to China's Ministry of Commerce, the minerals gallium and germanium will be subject to unspecified export controls starting next month. The U.S. has said the metals are crucial in the production of microchips, military equipment, and communications.

In a statement, the Chinese ministry said the measure will help protect "national security and interests."

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday the U.S. is also preparing to place restrictions on Chinese companies' access to cloud computing services, including those of Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT).

4. Supply cuts push up oil

Oil prices climbed on Tuesday, as traders weighed increased supply cuts by key exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia against signs of weakening global economic activity.

At 05:10 ET, U.S. crude futures traded 0.70% higher at $70.49 a barrel, while the Brent contract added 0.74% to $75.39 per barrel.

Saudi Arabia announced on Monday it will extend its recently announced 1 million barrels per day cuts to August and potentially beyond, while Russia also said it will trim its oil exports by 500,000 bpd.

However, any gains are likely to be limited with U.S. markets on holiday.

5. RBA keeps interest rates steady

The Reserve Bank of Australia has decided to maintain its cash rate at an 11-year high of 4.10% on Tuesday, as it attempts to gauge the impact of the 400 basis points of hikes since last May on the broader economy.

But Australia's central bank flagged that further tightening may still be needed to bring down elevated price growth. Inflation rose by 5.6% on an annual basis in May, according to official data, although this was slower than a recent peak of 8.4% in December.

"Inflation is still too high and will remain so for some time yet," warned RBA governor Philip Lowe in a statement.

The RBA is one of several central banks to embark upon a campaign of aggressive borrowing cost increases recently; the trend that has been a major driver of trading sentiment throughout 2023.

By Winni Zhou and Ryan Woo

SHANGHAI/BEIJING (Reuters) - China's major state banks have lowered their dollar deposit rates for the second time in a month, seven banking sources with direct knowledge of the matter said, as authorities have stepped up efforts to arrest a slide in the yuan.

Interest rates offered by the "Big Five" state-owned lenders on most dollar deposits are now capped at 2.8%, down from 4.3% previously, said the people, who declined to be named as they were not authorised to speak to the media.

The People's Bank of China, which typically issues guidance on dollar deposit rates to state banks, did not immediately comment on the matter.

The lenders - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China (OTC:ACGBF), China Construction Bank (OTC:CICHF) and Bank of Communications - did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Traders and analysts said policymakers, worried that a prolonged yuan slide could both discourage foreign investment and spur an outflow of funds abroad, want to bring down dollar deposit rates - which typically track offshore rates - towards domestic rates, which have been cut to aid the flagging economy.

The yuan is one of the worst-performing Asian currencies this year, knocked nearly 5% lower against the dollar by a slowdown in China's economy and widening yield differentials with the United States.

"It shows that the move is to narrow the interest rate advantage of the U.S. dollar in onshore markets," said Ken Cheung, chief Asian FX strategist at Mizuho Bank.

"It is likely aiming to prevent stockpiling dollars and encouraging (foreign exchange) settlements."

The lower rates could both discourage households from putting savings into higher-yielding dollar deposits and nudge Chinese firms, especially exporters, to settle foreign exchange receipts in yuan.

The new rates came into effect on July 1, said two of the sources, adding that some of the banks were not offering rates above the 2.8% cap for large deposits. Banks typically offer higher rates to deposits exceeding $1 million.

The PBOC, China's central bank, has recently moved to brake the yuan's slide against the dollar, setting stronger-than-expected daily fixings for the currency, while state banks have also been spotted selling dollars on occasion in both the onshore and offshore markets, trading sources said.

The latest cut in dollar deposit rates was the second in barely a month. In early June, sources told Reuters the big state banks had lowered such rates as much as 100 basis points from the previous ceiling of 5.3%.

Sources also told Reuters last week that the central bank has surveyed some foreign banks about the interest rates they offer to their clients for dollar deposits.

The PBOC said last Friday it would continue to keep the yuan basically stable and guard against the risk of large exchange rate fluctuations.

Some currency traders also said the cuts in dollar deposit rates would ease pressure on commercial lenders' net interest margin, as banks' dollar deposit rates had risen above lending rates before the recent adjustments.

The latest PBOC data showed that the weighted-average interest rate on large dollar deposits stood at 5.67% in March, up 4.15 percentage points from a year earlier, while the weighted-average dollar lending rate was up only 3.74 percentage points at 5.34%.

By Xie Yu

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Most Asian stocks fell on Tuesday, while the U.S. dollar and oil steadied, as investors held safe ranges awaiting more clues on whether central banks will continue their aggressive interest rate hikes.

Market conditions were also subdued heading into the U.S. Independence Day public holiday on Tuesday, with most of Wall Street closed.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.1%, by Tuesday mid-morning.

Australian shares were mostly flat, as investors waited to see whether the central bank will tighten again when it announces a policy decision later in the day.

Japan's Nikkei share average fell 1.1% as investors exited some bullish positions after the benchmark index closed at a 33-year high in the previous session.

China's mainland benchmark and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index were each down by 0.2%.

U.S. S&P 500 E-mini stock futures slipped 0.1% in Asian trade. Wall Street stock indexes ended Monday's shortened session up slightly along with Treasury yields.

In coming days, investors are watching out for a mixed bag of economic data ahead of second-quarter earnings, while uncertainty remains over the Federal Reserve's policy path, said Manishi Raychaudhuri, head of Asia Pacific equity research at BNP Paribas (OTC:BNPQY).

The minutes from the Fed's last meeting are due later this week, which could provide additional clues on policy direction but also inject some volatility, he said.

"If the Fed overtightens and decides to do more rate hikes than twice as the market widely expected, then there's a concern that the recession may turn out to be deeper than what is being factored in," Raychaudhuri said.

Geopolitical tensions also persist, he noted, with China's export controls on minerals adding more uncertainty around global trade relations.

In the currency market, the dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six major peers, rose slightly to 102.97.

Oil prices held steady on Tuesday, after settling 1% lower on Monday, as markets weighed supply woes from cuts for August by top exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia against economic data that suggested demand was weak.

Brent crude futures were up 0.3% at $74.87 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude also added 0.3% to $70.06.

The Treasury market is shut Tuesday for Independence Day. On Monday, a widely watched section of the U.S. Treasury yield curve hit its deepest inversion since the high inflation era of Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, reflecting financial markets' concerns that an extended Fed hiking cycle will tip the United States into recession.

By Ankur Banerjee

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The yen nudged up on Tuesday but remained vulnerable to more weakness, hovering near the key 145 per dollar level as markets were on alert for signs of intervention, while the Australian dollar moved up ahead of a central bank policy decision.

The yen was up 0.17% at 144.42 per dollar in early Asian hours, but remained close to last week's eight month low of 145.07 per dollar that prompted Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki to warn against excessive yen selling.

Earlier on Tuesday, Japan's top financial diplomat Masato Kanda said that officials were in close contact with U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and other overseas authorities almost everyday on currencies and broader financial markets.

"This is sending signals that a coordinated intervention may be coming as yen continues to hover above 144 per dollar," said Charu Chanana, market strategist at Saxo Markets.

"A coordinated intervention usually has a longer lasting impact on the yen than a unilateral intervention would have."

Japan bought yen in September, its first foray in the market to boost its currency since 1998, as the Bank of Japan's pledge to retain ultra-loose policy as long as required drove the yen as low as 145 per dollar. It intervened again in October after the yen plunged to a 32-year low of 151.94.

Against a basket of currencies, the dollar eased 0.039% to 102.910 after data overnight showed U.S. manufacturing slumped further in June, reaching levels last seen when the nation was reeling from the initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

"We expect the U.S. economy to face a recession starting in Q3 23," Kristina Clifton, senior currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (OTC:CMWAY), adding that it was likely to be a quiet day for the currency market with no major data releases or central bank speech scheduled. U.S. markets are closed for the July 4 Independence Day holiday.

Investor focus this week will be on nonfarm payrolls data along with jobs report for more clues about the broader labour market in the United States. Minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve's June meeting are also due to be released on Wednesday.

Markets are pricing in a near 87% chance of a 25 basis point hike in the next Federal Reserve meeting at the end of the month, the CME FedWatch tool showed.

RBA WATCH

The focus in Asian hours will be on the policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

Markets are leaning towards a pause, with swaps pricing a 63% chance of a hold in rates after data last week showed consumer inflation slowed to a 13-month low in May. But economists were split on the outcome, with 16 out of 31 polled by Reuters expecting a hike and the rest forecasting the bank to stand pat. [AU/INT]

Since a surprise pause in April and subsequent hikes in May and June, economists have been mostly divided in recent months over the RBA's next move.

CBA's Clifton said the slight easing in inflation in May should please the RBA but with a tight labour market as well as still high price pressures, a 25 bps hike would not be a surprise.

"We estimate that a hike would push up Aussie modestly by 0.8% so long as the post‑meeting statement was not dovish.  No change or a dovish hike could pull AUD modestly lower." 

The Australian dollar was at $0.668, up 0.16% against the U.S. dollar, while the New Zealand dollar was also up 0.16% at $0.616.

The euro was up 0.02% to $1.0913, while sterling was last at $1.2699, up 0.06% on the day.

========================================================

Currency bid prices at 0209 GMT

Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid

Previous Change

Session

Euro/Dollar $1.0908 $1.0915 -0.04% +1.82% +1.0915 +1.0908

Dollar/Yen 144.6100 144.6900 -0.09% +10.15% +144.6900 +144.4500

Euro/Yen 157.76 157.87 -0.07% +12.44% +157.9100 +157.6000

Dollar/Swiss 0.8965 0.8965 +0.02% -3.03% +0.8967 +0.8958

Sterling/Dollar 1.2691 1.2691 +0.02% +4.95% +1.2701 +1.2688

Dollar/Canadian 1.3248 1.3249 -0.01% -2.22% +1.3256 +1.3246

Aussie/Dollar 0.6679 0.6671 +0.10% -2.03% +0.6684 +0.6670

NZ 0.6158 0.6152 +0.11% -3.01% +0.6164 +0.6154

Dollar/Dollar

All spots

Tokyo spots

Europe spots

Volatilities

Tokyo Forex market info from BOJ