By Renju Jose

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Australia's budget surplus for 2022/23 will be bigger than the A$4.2 billion ($2.81 billion) projected in the May budget but high inflation and global challenges will "significantly slow" the domestic economy, Treasurer Jim Chalmers said on Wednesday.

Strong jobs growth and bumper mining profits will swell government coffers, similar to the forecast during the federal budget, while spending curbs and A$40 billion in savings have also boosted the budget bottom line.

"I can reveal that we're expecting the surplus will be bigger than forecast in May," Chalmers said in a speech to the Property Council of Australia. "In fact, we're in a significantly better position than we forecast."

Australia's Labor government in May boasted the first budget surplus in 15 years for the year to June 2023, a huge turnaround from the A$37 billion shortfall forecast last October.

But Chalmers said the increases in interest rates by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which now sit at an 11-year high, and warnings more tightening may be required to push inflation to target will put the brakes on economy.

"The 400-basis point increase in rates since before the election last year, is the most significant tightening cycle the RBA has undertaken since the inflation targeting era began," the treasurer said. "And this, along with global challenges, will significantly slow our economy."

The Australian economy could dip to 1.5% in 2023/24 from 3.25% this fiscal year, he said.

Ahead of the May inflation data due to be released later on Wednesday, Chalmers said high inflation remained the biggest challenge for the economy although he hoped it could return to RBA's target of 2-3% in 2024/25 from about 7% now.

"We expect (inflation) to stay higher than we'd like, for longer than we'd like, but still tracking in the right direction," Chalmers said.

($1 = 1.4963 Australian dollars)

By David Shepardson

(Reuters) -A New York City plan to charge a daily toll on vehicles entering or remaining in the central business district got a boost on Monday from the U.S. Department of Transportation, which said the city had adequately assessed how the congestion charge would help the environment.

The department's Federal Highway Administration said the planned change will have no significant environmental impact and that a more comprehensive environmental analysis was unnecessary.

The decision allows the sponsors of the plan, the first of its kind in the U.S., to advance their application to the U.S. agency's Value Pricing Pilot Program which "provides transportation agencies with options to manage congestion through tolling and other pricing mechanisms," the FHA said.

Three Democratic lawmakers from New Jersey - Senator Bob Menendez and representatives Josh Gottheimer and Bill Pascrell blasted the decision saying the plan was "nothing more than a cash grab to fund" the New York Metropolitan Transportation Authority. Menendez has introduced legislation that would cut 50% of federal highway grant funding to New York state if the plan goes ahead.

In May, USDOT approved release of the final environmental assessment for New York's congestion pricing plan for public review.

The city wants to charge a daily variable toll for vehicles entering or remaining within the central business district, defined as between 60th Street in Midtown Manhattan and Battery Park on Manhattan's southern tip.

Following entry into a tolling agreement, tolling could begin up to 310 days later, the city said in May.

New York City, which has the most congested traffic of any U.S. city, would become the first major city in the U.S. to follow London, which implemented a similar charge in 2003.

New York lawmakers approved the plan in 2019 to provide funding to improve mass transit by using tolls to manage traffic in central Manhattan. The plan was originally projected to start in 2021 but the federal government under President Donald Trump took no action.

By Rocky Swift

TOKYO (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar held its ground against major currencies on Tuesday as tension in Russia simmered and traders looked ahead to U.S. data that may determine the timing of further interest rate hikes.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Monday he let an aborted mutiny go on as long as it did to avoid bloodshed, a crisis that pushed the greenback to a 15-month high against the rouble.

The dollar index fell 0.13% to 102.600, paring a 0.46% gain on Monday.

The rouble weakened 0.30% versus the greenback to 84.65 per dollar after hitting its weakest level since March 2022 in the previous session.

The dollar was softer against the yen after Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Masato Kanda said Japan was not ruling out any options in possible responses to excessive currency movement. Japan intervened to boost the yen last year when it weakened passed the 145 per dollar level.

The yen strengthened 0.01% versus the greenback at 143.49 per dollar.

U.S. data this week include new orders for durable goods, housing figures, and consumer surveys from The Conference Board and University of Michigan.

Market participants expect the Federal Reserve to raise its funds target rate by 25 basis points in July, but the path beyond is less clear.

"We will have many U.S. indicators, which I think will be mixed, so there will be no strong momentum, at least today," said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities.

"Two more rate hikes are not fully priced in the market. If the U.S. economic data comes out on the strong side, then further pricing in for the two rate hikes will push up the dollar," Yamamoto said.

The euro was up 0.15% to $1.092 ahead of remarks by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal.

Sterling was last trading at $1.2734, up 0.17% on the day.

In Asia, the dollar fell 0.37% against the offshore Chinese yuan to $7.2174 after hitting a 7-month high as investors braced for potentially more support measures as China returned from a holiday on Monday.

China's central bank set its daily yuan fixing stronger than market expectations for a second day in a row on Tuesday, and sources said state-owned banks had been selling dollars in the offshore spot foreign exchange market, bolstering speculation authorities were becoming less tolerant of yuan weakness.

By Tetsushi Kajimoto

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki kept up verbal warnings on Tuesday against the yen's depreciation, saying he would respond appropriately if currency moves became excessive.

Suzuki's latest warning shot came as the dollar traded at 143.43 yen, down 0.06% from late U.S. levels. Japanese officials have sounded the alarm in recent days over rapid weakening of the currency.

"Sharp (OTC:SHCAY) and one-sided moves" were observed recently in the currency market, he added.

Though he gave little clue whether Japan would intervene to back the yen, the tone of his warning was not so sharp as last year's, when he vowed decisive steps because he was deeply concerned about the weak currency.

"It was important for currencies to move in a stable fashion, reflecting economic fundamentals," Suzuki told reporters after a cabinet meeting.

"We will closely watch currency market moves with a strong sense of urgency and will respond appropriately if the moves become excessive."

A weaker yen boosts profits for exporters and companies with overseas operations, but on the other hand, higher import bills weigh on companies and consumers.

With both positive and negative effects it is difficult to say which factors outweigh the rest, Suzuki said.

"Rising prices have become a big policy issue," he added. "We will closely watch price trends and impacts on people's livelihood and businesses."

On Tuesday, Japan's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda retained his post for a second straight year in an annual reshuffle, as a jittery market requires Kanda's ability to intervene to turn the tide in currencies.

Suzuki did not elaborate on the reason for retaining Kanda, but called him "the right person in the right job".

He added, "Japan needs to keep close co-ordination with G7 and other countries concerned. We take into account the experience and human networks Kanda has gained through his job."

Under Kanda, Japan made rare interventions last September and October to stem weakness in the yen that had carried it as low as just below 152 against the dollar.

Speculation is rife that Japanese authorities may intervene again to support the yen if it falls to 145 to the dollar, near a level that prompted intervention in September.

By Kane Wu

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Asian stocks wobbled on Tuesday as investors held tight ranges awaiting clues on the interest rate outlook and wary of risks about China's shaky economic recovery and developments in Russia after an aborted mutiny.

MSCI's gauge of Asia Pacific stocks outside Japan was up 0.08% at 0126 GMT, after dropping 0.06% an hour earlier. Japan's benchmark Nikkei average fell as much as 1%.

"Asian equities are set for a downturn on Tuesday, prompted by Wall Street's risk-aversion behavior," said Anderson Alves, a global macro analyst at ActivTrades.

All three major U.S. stock indexes ended in the red on Monday, with megacap momentum stocks pulling the tech-heavy Nasdaq down the most.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.04%, the S&P 500 lost 0.45% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.16%.

"It's significant to mention that a sense of caution prevails among investors with respect to the global economy's trajectory over the forthcoming months," Alves said. "The threat of a potential recession during a high-interest rate cycle, enforced by central banks, could significantly impact both the U.S. and Europe, thereby influencing global trade, financing conditions, and demand."

Hang Seng Index and China's benchmark CSI300 Index opened up 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively, shaking off losses from the past four sessions.

S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI) on Monday cut its forecast for China's economic growth to 5.2% in 2023, down from an earlier estimate of 5.5%, underscoring the uneven nature of the country's recovery from the pandemic.

It was the first time a global credit ratings agency has cut China's forecast this year and follows lowered predictions by major investment banks including Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS).

Redmond Wong, market strategist Greater China at Saxo Markets, said investors are also closely watching end-of-quarter rebalancing flows in U.S. stocks

"The impending rebalancing is expected to have a notable impact on the market dynamics, as traders prepare for potential shifts in stock prices and overall market sentiment," Wong said. "With the month and quarter end coinciding, the magnitude of these rebalancing flows adds an element of anticipation and uncertainty for market participants."

Geopolitical turmoil also dampened risk appetite following an aborted mutiny in Russia on the weekend, which appeared to reveal cracks in President Vladimir Putin's grip on power.

"Although the situation has subsided, any subsequent insurrection against Russia remains a potential cause for concern, potentially triggering a defensive reaction in safe-haven assets," said Alves of ActivTrades.

In energy markets, U.S. crude went up 0.61% to $69.79 a barrel while Brent gained 0.53% to $74.57 a barrel, wiping out earlier gains.

Spot gold added 0.32% to $1,928.9 an ounce.

In currency markets, the dollar index was up 0.029%.

Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields were steady in early Asia trade at 3.7154%. Two year yields fell 7 basis points to 4.671%.

By David Shepardson

(Reuters) -A New York City plan to charge a daily toll on vehicles entering or remaining in the central business district got a boost on Monday from the U.S. Department of Transportation, which said the city had adequately assessed how the congestion charge would help the environment.

The department's Federal Highway Administration said the planned change will have no significant environmental impact and that a more comprehensive environmental analysis was unnecessary.

The decision allows the sponsors of the plan, the first of its kind in the U.S., to advance their application to the U.S. agency's Value Pricing Pilot Program which "provides transportation agencies with options to manage congestion through tolling and other pricing mechanisms," the FHA said.

Three Democratic lawmakers from New Jersey - Senator Bob Menendez and representatives Josh Gottheimer and Bill Pascrell blasted the decision saying the plan was "nothing more than a cash grab to fund" the New York Metropolitan Transportation Authority. Menendez has introduced legislation that would cut 50% of federal highway grant funding to New York state if the plan goes ahead.

In May, USDOT approved release of the final environmental assessment for New York's congestion pricing plan for public review.

The city wants to charge a daily variable toll for vehicles entering or remaining within the central business district, defined as between 60th Street in Midtown Manhattan and Battery Park on Manhattan's southern tip.

Following entry into a tolling agreement, tolling could begin up to 310 days later, the city said in May.

New York City, which has the most congested traffic of any U.S. city, would become the first major city in the U.S. to follow London, which implemented a similar charge in 2003.

New York lawmakers approved the plan in 2019 to provide funding to improve mass transit by using tolls to manage traffic in central Manhattan. The plan was originally projected to start in 2021 but the federal government under President Donald Trump took no action.

By Jeff Mason and Jarrett Renshaw

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The White House on Monday divvied up $42 billion among the nation's 50 states and U.S. territories to make access to high-speed broadband universal by 2030, as it launched a new publicity campaign for President Joe Biden's economic policies.

The funding under the Broadband Equity Access and Deployment Program was authorized by the $1 trillion 2021 infrastructure law Biden championed. The spending will be based on a newly released Federal Communications Commission coverage map that details gaps in access.

Texas and California - the two most populous U.S. states - top the funding list at $3.1 billion and $1.9 billion, respectively. But other, less populous states like Virginia, Alabama and Louisiana cracked the top 10 list for funding due to lack of broadband access. These states have large rural areas with less internet connectivity than their major cities.

"It's the biggest investment in high-speed internet ever. Because for today's economy to work for everyone, internet access is just as important as electricity, or water, or other basic services," Biden said in a White House address on Monday.

The awards range from $27 million to U.S. territories like U.S. Virgin Islands to over $3.3 billion for Texas, with every state receiving a minimum of $107 million.

The announcement kicks off the second leg of Biden's tour highlighting how legislation passed when his Democratic Party controlled Congress will affect average Americans, as his 2024 re-election bid gears up.

As part of the sales pitch, Biden is also set to give what White House officials describe as a major economic speech on Wednesday in Chicago, laying out so-called "Bidenomics," according to a memo on Monday from senior advisers Anita Dunn and Mike Donilon to congressional Democrats and other allies.

The 2024 election will in part be seen as a referendum on Biden's handing of the economy. Job creation and low unemployment are the positives while elevated inflation and the knock-on effect of higher interest rates have stoked fears of a recession.

More than half - 54% - of Americans disapprove of how Biden is handing his job, while just 35% of respondents approved of his stewardship of the economy, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted earlier this month. Democrats lost control of the House of Representatives in the 2022 midterm elections.

The administration estimates there are some 8.5 million locations in the U.S. that lack access to broadband connections.

Broadband companies such as Verizon (NYSE:VZ), Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA), Charter Communications (NASDAQ:CHTR) and AT&T (NYSE:T) have been reluctant to provide access to low-population, rural communities because the investments are expensive and the regions do not offer a lot of subscribers. The lack of broadband access drew attention during COVID-19 shutdowns that forced students into online schooling.

States are expected to submit initial plans later this year that will unlock 20% of the funding. Once the plans are finalized, which could take to 2025, the government will release the remaining money.

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - The World Bank said it had approved on Friday a $700 million operation for Mexico to promote public policies to create economic opportunities and expand social security for women.

The operation is set to help close gender gaps, provide access to better jobs, improve safety on public transport and systems to prevent gender-based violence, an urgent issue in a country where on average some 20 women are killed every day.

The project also looks to expand social security coverage to cover all domestic workers - who are mostly women - to protect them against economic blows. Some 72% of domestic workers in Mexico do not receive any sort of work benefits, according to the country's statistics agency.

The operation will also focus on expanding efficient, low-emission modes of transport.

"These measures are expected to improve the perception and safety of women when using non-motorized and public transport," the World Bank said in a statement, helping women avoid cars and reducing the transport sector's overall carbon footprint.

Public transportation is the second-most common place where sexual violence against women in Mexico takes place, according to an Enkoll poll published earlier this year by newspaper El Pais.

The transport reforms should help women better access employment and education, it said.

"Improving women's access to economic opportunities is key to improving their productivity and income, thus reducing inequalities in Mexico," Mark Thomas, the bank's Mexico, Colombia, and Venezuela director said in a statement.

By Pete Schroeder

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Big U.S. lenders are expected to show they have ample capital to weather any fresh turmoil in the banking sector during this week's Federal Reserve health checks, although resulting investor payouts are likely to dip slightly, analysts said.

The central bank on Wednesday will release the results of its bank "stress tests" which assess how much capital banks would need to withstand a severe economic downturn.

The annual exercise, introduced following the 2007-2009 financial crisis, is integral to banks' capital planning, dictating how much cash they can return to shareholders via dividends and share buybacks.

The 2023 tests come in the wake of this year's banking crisis in which Silicon Valley Bank and two other lenders failed. They found themselves on the wrong end of Fed interest rate hikes, suffering large unrealized losses on their U.S. Treasury bond holdings which spooked uninsured depositors.

Wall Street lenders including Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C), Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) , JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM), Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE:GS), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) usually attract the most attention. But with continued investor jitters over the sector, smaller lenders including Capital One, U.S. Bancorp, and Citizens are likely to be in the spotlight too.

Despite the turmoil, and the exam being the hardest in years, bank analysts and executives expect the 23 lenders being tested will show capital in excess of regulatory minimums.

"The 2023 Fed Stress Test throws the kitchen sink at banks and allows them to show that the largest banks can handle one of the toughest tests yet," Wells Fargo analysts wrote on Thursday.

"Dividends should be secure, and banks should have excess capital to return to shareholders under most circumstances, even if at a slower pace than in the past."

The industry has performed well in recent years, although the Fed has faced criticism after the spring bank failures for not probing bank weaknesses for rising rates in prior tests.

Last year, the Fed found banks would suffer a combined $612 billion in losses in a severe economic downturn, but that would still leave them roughly twice the capital required under Fed rules.

This year's test is even tougher. The Fed's "severely adverse" scenario envisages the unemployment rate jumping 6.5 percentage points, compared with 5.8 percentage points in 2022. That's because the test gets harder as the real economy grows stronger, and the real U.S. jobless rate is lower in 2023.

The test will also envisage a 40% slump in the prices of commercial real estate, an area of greater concern this year as lingering pandemic-era office vacancies stress borrowers.

How well a bank performs dictates the size of its "stress capital buffer" - an extra cushion of capital the Fed requires for banks to weather the hypothetical economic downturn, on top of regulatory minimums required to support daily business. The larger the losses under the test, the larger the buffer.

The Bank Policy Institute, a Washington bank lobby group, said on Thursday it anticipates banks' hypothetical losses will be slightly higher this year. Average capital levels will fall by 3.2% in 2023, up slightly from 3% in 2022, it predicted.

RBC analysts predicted earlier this month that hypothetical credit losses will be largely driven by commercial real estate exposure, and that some banks would face higher buffers.

That, combined with impending new capital hikes and uncertainty over the economic outlook, will make banks slightly more conservative about payouts this year, said analysts.

"Capital return expectations continue to get ratcheted down given looming headwinds," said Jefferies analysts this month.

Last year's test was relatively straightforward partly because the Fed did not have a Vice Chair for Supervision since Randal Quarles stepped down in 2021. This year, the tests are being overseen by his successor Michael Barr, who has said he wants to make them more dynamic by applying multiple scenarios.

This year, for example, also includes an "exploratory market shock" for the eight largest and most complex banks. While that will not affect capital, it will be used to assess potentially employing multiple scenarios in future stress test exercises.

"In an environment of ever-changing risks, stress tests can quickly lose their relevance if their assumptions and scenarios remain static," said Barr in December.

By Tom Westbrook

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil was slightly higher on Monday as an abortive weekend mutiny by Russian mercenaries raised questions about crude supply, while stocks lacked direction as investors waited for more clarity around the situation.

Brent crude futures were last up 0.4% at $74.14 having earlier drifted as high as $74.80. MSCI's index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dipped to a three-week low before floating around either side of flat.

Japan's Nikkei bounced around, too, and was last trading flat. The safe-haven yen rose marginally, helped by hints at possible government intervention to support it and by a summary showing a central bank board member pushed in June for a debate on its yield curve control policy.

S&P 500 and European futures rose 0.3%.

Russian mercenaries made a short-lived rebellion on Saturday, seizing the southern city of Rostov and advancing on Moscow demanding the removal of Russian military commanders in charge of the war in Ukraine.

The private Wagner army then withdrew after striking a deal guaranteeing their safety and the exile of their leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, to Belarus. The consequences for the Ukraine war were not clear, though the challenge to Russian President Vladimir Putin's authority was the starkest in decades of his leadership.

"Geopolitical risk amid internal instability in Russia has increased," said Rystad Energy analysts Jorge Leon. "As such, we are likely to see a marginal uptick in oil prices in the coming days, if the situation does not deteriorate."

Analysts at RBC Capital Markets said one concern was the possibility of martial law in Russia and its effect on the workforce at ports and production facilities.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the turmoil in Russia could take months to play out, while Italy's foreign minister said it had shattered the "myth" of Russian unity.

CHINA FOCUS

Elsewhere markets were already on edge about a darkening growth outlook, as China's post-pandemic recovery stalls and global interest rates remain high, and traders were reluctant to take any new positions on the basis of Russian events.

The risk-sensitive Australian dollar was steady at $0.6679. The euro nursed last week's modest drop at $1.0906 and sterling held at $1.2728.

"I don't think the market can get its head around working out if there are implications," said Ray Attrill, head of foreign exchange strategy at National Australia Bank (OTC:NABZY) in Sydney.

"People may think that ultimately Putin's grip on power is weakened here. Maybe the Ukrainians may be emboldened to be upping their counteroffensives," he said, but without obvious progress traders in Asia would be focused on China.

On that front, S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI) followed most Wall Street banks and cut its 2023 GDP growth forecast for China on Sunday.

The yuan opened sharply lower onshore, catching up with offshore falls on Thursday and Friday, but the People's Bank of China fixed the midpoint of the its trading band slightly firmer than some expectations, which perhaps dampened further falls.

The yuan was last at 7.2094 per dollar.

The Japanese yen, which has been on a slide as global interest rate expectations rise and Japan's central bank stays steadfastly dovish, bounced as much as 0.3% to 143.27 per dollar, before steadying back to 143.51.

Japan's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda said on Monday authorities will respond to any excessive moves and did not rule out intervening, as happened last year. The Bank of Japan should also discuss revising its yield curve control policy at an early stage, a board member was quoted as saying at a June policy meeting, a summary of opinions released on Monday showed.